Assessing Mission Reliability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System in the Face of Uncertain Shocks

The mission reliability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems reflects their ability to fulfill designated tasks within specified time frames and under defined conditions. In practical combat applications, evaluating and predicting the reliability of UAV mission systems holds significant importance for mission planning, allocation, and decision-making by military commanders. To solve the problem that existing methods cannot effectively quantify the impact of uncertain shock on the mission reliability of UAV systems, an evaluation method under uncertain shock conditions is proposed in this paper, considering the complexity of actual combat environment and mission characteristics. Initially, a detailed uncertain shock model is established to accurately capture the degradation patterns in UAV system performance throughout mission execution. Building upon this foundation, the concepts of system failure index and system failure time are introduced, providing a holistic metric for evaluating mission reliability. Furthermore, an innovative approach is presented to determine the optimal task termination strategy and achieve the highest possible mission reliability for the UAV system. Extensive simulation experiments are conducted to validate the practicality and effectiveness of this methodology. This method considers the impact of uncertain factors on mission completion, quantifies the mission reliability of UAV systems under uncertain shock conditions, and fills the gap of existing methods.