Threat Modeling and Risk Assessment of Nuclear Facility from the Motivation Perspective

The security of nuclear facilities is a globally paramount concern, particularly to member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency. This paper delves into modeling the threat of man-made attacks on nuclear facilities from the perspectives of threat target, source, and event, utilizing the enumeration and semi-quantification methods. Afterward, a threat risk model is defined in terms of motivation risk and threat scale, aiming to quantitatively evaluate the security of nuclear facilities against potential attacks. By introducing motivation theory, it offers a new direction for risk assessment in the field of nuclear security. Finally, the application of the threat risk assessment model is illustrated by two case studies in diverse scenarios, coupled with countermeasures tailored to mitigate the specific threats and vulnerabilities pinpointed by the model. The model provides support for the design basic threat and risk assessments of nuclear facilities equipped with physical protection systems.