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<p>Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment is challenged by limited historical TC records. In this paper, a statistical–dynamical model is developed to generate a large TC hazard dataset over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin for risk assessment. The model integrates three core components: a fully statistical TC genesis model, an environment-dependent beta-advection TC track model (BAM) for trajectory simulation, and a set of nonlinear differential equations governing TC intensification rates. Using this model, a 10,000-yr synthetic TC dataset is generated and systematically validated against observational records. The results show that the model reproduces observed TC climatology, including seasonal cycle, genesis statistics, track density, and intensity distribution. Regional TC hazard analysis via landfall intensity return period curves across the WNP shows reasonable model performance. It is thus believed that the proposed statistical–dynamical model has the potential to be used for supporting TC risk assessments in coastal regions, including those with limited observational data.</p>

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A Statistical–Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model for the Western North Pacific with Environment-Dependent Tracks

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月25日

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  • Rui Zhang,
  • Ying Li

摘要

Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment is challenged by limited historical TC records. In this paper, a statistical–dynamical model is developed to generate a large TC hazard dataset over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin for risk assessment. The model integrates three core components: a fully statistical TC genesis model, an environment-dependent beta-advection TC track model (BAM) for trajectory simulation, and a set of nonlinear differential equations governing TC intensification rates. Using this model, a 10,000-yr synthetic TC dataset is generated and systematically validated against observational records. The results show that the model reproduces observed TC climatology, including seasonal cycle, genesis statistics, track density, and intensity distribution. Regional TC hazard analysis via landfall intensity return period curves across the WNP shows reasonable model performance. It is thus believed that the proposed statistical–dynamical model has the potential to be used for supporting TC risk assessments in coastal regions, including those with limited observational data.