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<p>In the past century, the development of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting technology in China has experienced several main stages, from cloud identification, weather chart analysis, to statistical forecasting, statistics–dynamic forecasting, numerical forecasting, and their integrated application. As a result, the capability in forecasting TCs in China has significantly improved in both accuracy and stability, with noticeable stepwise features corresponding to the developments in forecasting technology. Looking ahead, forecasting of TCs has entered a new phase to break through the bottlenecks of fine structure and long lead time forecasting. Advancing the TC physics understanding is converging with improved AI capabilities, catalyzing a foreseen leap in TC forecasting technology.</p>

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Development of Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Technology in China: Past, Present, and Future

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • Hui Yu,
  • Lianshou Chen,
  • Zhemin Tan,
  • Yihong Duan,
  • Mengqi Yang,
  • Chen Chen,
  • Yongping Li,
  • Guomin Chen,
  • Wei Huang,
  • Qifeng Qian,
  • Suhong Ma,
  • Xin Wang

摘要

In the past century, the development of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting technology in China has experienced several main stages, from cloud identification, weather chart analysis, to statistical forecasting, statistics–dynamic forecasting, numerical forecasting, and their integrated application. As a result, the capability in forecasting TCs in China has significantly improved in both accuracy and stability, with noticeable stepwise features corresponding to the developments in forecasting technology. Looking ahead, forecasting of TCs has entered a new phase to break through the bottlenecks of fine structure and long lead time forecasting. Advancing the TC physics understanding is converging with improved AI capabilities, catalyzing a foreseen leap in TC forecasting technology.