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<p>Due to global warming and diminishing ice cover in Arctic regions, the northern sea route (NSR) has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Extreme cold temperatures and high wind speeds in Arctic regions present substantial risks to vessels operating along the NSR. Consequently, analyzing extreme temperature and wind speed values along the NSR is essential for ensuring maritime operational safety in the region. This study analyzes wind and temperature data spanning 40 years, from 1981 to 2020, at four representative sites along the NSR for extreme value analysis. The average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method and the Gumbel method are employed to estimate extreme wind speed and air temperature at these sites. Comparative analysis reveals that the ACER method provides higher accuracy and lower uncertainty in estimations. The predicted extreme wind speed for a 100-year return period is 30.36 m/s, with a minimum temperature of -56.66 °C, varying across the four sites. Furthermore, the study presents extreme values corresponding to each return period, providing temperature extremes as a basis for guiding steel thickness specifications. These findings provide valuable reference for designing polar vessels and offshore structures, contributing to enhanced engineering standards for Arctic conditions.</p>

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Prediction of Extreme Air Temperature and Wind Speed Along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) with Application for the Safety of Polar Vessels

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月9日

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  • Wei Chai,
  • Jian-zhang Qi,
  • Lin He,
  • Bernt J. Leira,
  • Chana Sinsabvarodom,
  • Ya-qing Shu

摘要

Due to global warming and diminishing ice cover in Arctic regions, the northern sea route (NSR) has attracted increasing attention in recent years. Extreme cold temperatures and high wind speeds in Arctic regions present substantial risks to vessels operating along the NSR. Consequently, analyzing extreme temperature and wind speed values along the NSR is essential for ensuring maritime operational safety in the region. This study analyzes wind and temperature data spanning 40 years, from 1981 to 2020, at four representative sites along the NSR for extreme value analysis. The average conditional exceedance rate (ACER) method and the Gumbel method are employed to estimate extreme wind speed and air temperature at these sites. Comparative analysis reveals that the ACER method provides higher accuracy and lower uncertainty in estimations. The predicted extreme wind speed for a 100-year return period is 30.36 m/s, with a minimum temperature of -56.66 °C, varying across the four sites. Furthermore, the study presents extreme values corresponding to each return period, providing temperature extremes as a basis for guiding steel thickness specifications. These findings provide valuable reference for designing polar vessels and offshore structures, contributing to enhanced engineering standards for Arctic conditions.