Analysis of the watershed social–ecological system trajectory in Copalita-Huatulco, Mexico: The impact of drivers on hydrological ecosystem services

In watersheds, which function as social–ecological systems (SESs), hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) are crucial flows connecting natural and social components. The internal and external drivers that shape HESs and watershed SES trajectories create complexities in watershed management. In this study, the adaptive cycle framework was adopted, and a qualitative method is proposed to analyze the impacts of drivers on the HES and the watershed SES trajectory. Empirical evidence from the Copalita-Huatulco watershed in Mexico was used to study the relationships between drivers and HESs. The results reveal changes in regional hydrodynamics due to natural shocks, cumulative social stressors, and SES-related human trajectories. The SES trajectory was in a growth phase when stressors dominated, a collapse when shocks occurred, and a conservation phase when human agency was strong. Understanding the impact of drivers on HESs and their integration into SES trajectories is a key element of HES resilience.