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<p>An often-overlooked assumption of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, and other models of data from mark-recapture studies, is that individuals have independent fates. This may be violated if mated individuals move together, depend on each other for protection or resources, or share the tasks of rearing offspring. Draghici et al. (Ecol Evol 11:5966–5984, 2021) showed that the standard CJS model underestimates uncertainty and produces overly conservative tests for differences between the sexes if dependence is ignored and found that this is not corrected by applying existing variance inflation factors. We present a new approach to make inference about correlation in the survival and recapture of paired animals from mark-recapture studies of open populations. We conducted a simulation study to assess the performance of the methods and analysed data from a 28-year study of Harlequin ducks (<i>Histrionicus histrionicus</i>, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="13253_2025_704_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="57" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(n = 314\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>n</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>314</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), a long-lived seabird that forms monogamous pairs. Our approach is fast and easy to implement, and the results show that the method provides reliable inference for recapture and survival correlations for long-term mates when sample sizes are large and recapture rates are high. However, we find no evidence of a correlation in recapture or survival for the Harlequin duck. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.</p>

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Modelling Dependent Fates of Long-Term Mates in Mark-Recapture Studies Using Conditional Data Methods

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月11日

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  • Alex Draghici,
  • Simon J. Bonner

摘要

An often-overlooked assumption of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, and other models of data from mark-recapture studies, is that individuals have independent fates. This may be violated if mated individuals move together, depend on each other for protection or resources, or share the tasks of rearing offspring. Draghici et al. (Ecol Evol 11:5966–5984, 2021) showed that the standard CJS model underestimates uncertainty and produces overly conservative tests for differences between the sexes if dependence is ignored and found that this is not corrected by applying existing variance inflation factors. We present a new approach to make inference about correlation in the survival and recapture of paired animals from mark-recapture studies of open populations. We conducted a simulation study to assess the performance of the methods and analysed data from a 28-year study of Harlequin ducks (Histrionicus histrionicus, \(n = 314\) n = 314 ), a long-lived seabird that forms monogamous pairs. Our approach is fast and easy to implement, and the results show that the method provides reliable inference for recapture and survival correlations for long-term mates when sample sizes are large and recapture rates are high. However, we find no evidence of a correlation in recapture or survival for the Harlequin duck. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.