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<p>Water security, the fundamental guarantee for socioeconomic development, is the basic prerequisite for ensuring humans have access to sufficient and safe water resources. In this study, a comprehensive water security evaluation system was constructed from four dimensions: water quantity, water quality, water pollution, and flood disasters. A system-dynamics simulation model for water security was developed. By coupling the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways, predictions were made about the future development trends of China’s water security. The results indicate that China’s water security situation shows significant volatility. The total water supply peaked in 2025. The compliance rate of drinking-water sources reached 98% and stabilized in 2034. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions of industrial and domestic sewage peaked in 2020 and 2034 respectively, and the direct economic losses caused by flood disasters increased cyclically. In future scenario simulations, the water security situation will reach its optimal state under the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario, while it will be most severe under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario. By 2052, the proportion of provinces with an “excellent” level in the water-quantity and water-quality subsystems will reach 52% and 77.4% respectively, mostly concentrated in economically developed regions. The balance between water supply and demand is the primary factor driving changes in water security. These results highlight the necessity of researching the stress factors and stress mechanisms influencing water security in the context of climate change.</p>

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China’s water security under SSP–RCP scenarios: a system-dynamics evaluation of trends, drivers and spatial patterns

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月3日

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  • Dongjie Guan,
  • Lisheng Liu,
  • Lilei Zhou,
  • Shi Chen,
  • Jiameng Cao,
  • Xiujuan He,
  • Xinyu Liu,
  • Zhifeng Liu

摘要

Water security, the fundamental guarantee for socioeconomic development, is the basic prerequisite for ensuring humans have access to sufficient and safe water resources. In this study, a comprehensive water security evaluation system was constructed from four dimensions: water quantity, water quality, water pollution, and flood disasters. A system-dynamics simulation model for water security was developed. By coupling the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways, predictions were made about the future development trends of China’s water security. The results indicate that China’s water security situation shows significant volatility. The total water supply peaked in 2025. The compliance rate of drinking-water sources reached 98% and stabilized in 2034. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) emissions of industrial and domestic sewage peaked in 2020 and 2034 respectively, and the direct economic losses caused by flood disasters increased cyclically. In future scenario simulations, the water security situation will reach its optimal state under the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario, while it will be most severe under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario. By 2052, the proportion of provinces with an “excellent” level in the water-quantity and water-quality subsystems will reach 52% and 77.4% respectively, mostly concentrated in economically developed regions. The balance between water supply and demand is the primary factor driving changes in water security. These results highlight the necessity of researching the stress factors and stress mechanisms influencing water security in the context of climate change.