Predicting the future trends for circular economy

Considering sustainability and resource efficiency goals, the circular economy has gained significant attention as a promising economic model. For the country’s sustainable development, policymakers need to design a new economic framework that targets the reduction of waste generation and the enhancement of its usage. To achieve this, countries worldwide focus on total municipal waste generation and its disposal methods with a focus on recycling. Considering this need, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) explored twelve factors associated with the Circular Economy (CE) for European countries. For a better understanding, a correlation analysis was conducted on total municipal waste generation and recycling for eleven countries. Trend analysis is also performed to understand how countries should plan their future policy designs while keeping sustainability in the limelight. The study employs an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict trends in two crucial components of the CE: municipal waste generation and recycling rates. The predicting modelling approach will provide a targeted measure for policymakers to handle waste efficiently.