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<p>The current wood-based products trade deficit stands at approximately 24 million CUM of Round Wood Equivalent (RWE). The growing income elasticity of wood products signals a need for policymakers to devise effective strategies to meet market demand. The present evaluation attempts to evaluate and develop export and import models to identify the drivers along with forecast the trade using data of a total of 390 commodities of wood and wood-based products under international trade collected from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) for 2000–01 to 2021–2022. The Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Granger co-integration approach were applied to forecast and understand the dynamics of wood and wood-based products trade in India. The results suggest that the export of wood and wood-based products will attain around 27 million CUM RWE by 2027, about two times the quantity of 2021 whereas the import will be 60 million CUM RWE in 2027 about 30 percent higher than 2021. The cointegration results underscored the fact that with an increase in income and population of the country, the demand for wood-based products will increase. Therefore, the policy perspective should be tuned for increasing domestic production of wood products to meet the current demand.</p>

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Forecasting and constituents of export and import of wood and wood products in India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月5日

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  • Muthuprasad Thiyaharajan,
  • Shailendra Kumar,
  • Ankita Negi,
  • Rajiv Pandey,
  • Vinay Kumar

摘要

The current wood-based products trade deficit stands at approximately 24 million CUM of Round Wood Equivalent (RWE). The growing income elasticity of wood products signals a need for policymakers to devise effective strategies to meet market demand. The present evaluation attempts to evaluate and develop export and import models to identify the drivers along with forecast the trade using data of a total of 390 commodities of wood and wood-based products under international trade collected from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) for 2000–01 to 2021–2022. The Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Granger co-integration approach were applied to forecast and understand the dynamics of wood and wood-based products trade in India. The results suggest that the export of wood and wood-based products will attain around 27 million CUM RWE by 2027, about two times the quantity of 2021 whereas the import will be 60 million CUM RWE in 2027 about 30 percent higher than 2021. The cointegration results underscored the fact that with an increase in income and population of the country, the demand for wood-based products will increase. Therefore, the policy perspective should be tuned for increasing domestic production of wood products to meet the current demand.