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Background <p>Mental disorders are a major source of disease burden among adolescents and young adults (AYA). A clearer understanding of their long-term temporal trends and variation across sociodemographic settings may help inform more preventive and targeted mental health strategies, consistent with the aims of Predictive, Preventive and Personalized Medicine (PPPM/3PM).</p> Methods <p>We analyzed incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for mental disorders among individuals aged 15–39&#xa0;years from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression, age–period–cohort modelling, decomposition analysis and efficiency frontier analysis were applied to identify high-risk populations and key life stages. Future burden (2022–2050) was projected using hybrid regression–ARIMA models under reference and risk-reduction scenarios to explore potential future patterns.</p> Results <p>Globally, mental disorders accounted for 195.3 million incident cases and 71.0 million DALYs among AYA in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates increased significantly, with average annual percentage changes of 0.62, 0.27, and 0.41, respectively. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions had the highest age-standardized burden and the largest recent increases. Decomposition analysis showed that rising age-specific rates contributed most to increasing burden in high-SDI regions, whereas population growth was the main driver in low-SDI settings. Cohort analysis suggested elevated risks in more recent birth cohorts, with relative risks increasing to approximately 1.20–1.25 among those born after 2000. Under the reference scenario, the future burden among individuals aged 20–29&#xa0;years was projected to increase substantially by 2050, with DALY rates in the 20–24 age group rising from 2372.9 to 6063.4 per 100,000.</p> Conclusion <p>Mental disorders remain a substantial and increasing source of disease burden among adolescents and young adults worldwide, with marked variation across sociodemographic settings. These findings highlight the importance of age-specific and context-specific mental health strategies and may help inform more preventive and personalized approaches to AYA mental healthcare.</p>

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Temporal trends and projections in the global burden of mental disorders among adolescents and young adults (15—39 years): Analysis within the framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月16日

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  • Yi Cheng,
  • Xiao Zhang,
  • Yue Feng,
  • Jingyi Wang,
  • Zhili Dou,
  • Jinzhu Jia

摘要

Background

Mental disorders are a major source of disease burden among adolescents and young adults (AYA). A clearer understanding of their long-term temporal trends and variation across sociodemographic settings may help inform more preventive and targeted mental health strategies, consistent with the aims of Predictive, Preventive and Personalized Medicine (PPPM/3PM).

Methods

We analyzed incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for mental disorders among individuals aged 15–39 years from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression, age–period–cohort modelling, decomposition analysis and efficiency frontier analysis were applied to identify high-risk populations and key life stages. Future burden (2022–2050) was projected using hybrid regression–ARIMA models under reference and risk-reduction scenarios to explore potential future patterns.

Results

Globally, mental disorders accounted for 195.3 million incident cases and 71.0 million DALYs among AYA in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates increased significantly, with average annual percentage changes of 0.62, 0.27, and 0.41, respectively. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions had the highest age-standardized burden and the largest recent increases. Decomposition analysis showed that rising age-specific rates contributed most to increasing burden in high-SDI regions, whereas population growth was the main driver in low-SDI settings. Cohort analysis suggested elevated risks in more recent birth cohorts, with relative risks increasing to approximately 1.20–1.25 among those born after 2000. Under the reference scenario, the future burden among individuals aged 20–29 years was projected to increase substantially by 2050, with DALY rates in the 20–24 age group rising from 2372.9 to 6063.4 per 100,000.

Conclusion

Mental disorders remain a substantial and increasing source of disease burden among adolescents and young adults worldwide, with marked variation across sociodemographic settings. These findings highlight the importance of age-specific and context-specific mental health strategies and may help inform more preventive and personalized approaches to AYA mental healthcare.