Assessing Present and Future Potential Distributions of Sagittaria macrophylla Zucc. and Sagittaria latifolia Willd. in Mexico under Various Climate Models and Timeframes

Anthropogenic climate change significantly impacts ecosystem health, biodiversity, and the life cycle and distribution of aquatic macrophytes. Mexican aquatic habitats for macrophytes are particularly vulnerable, with their degradation posing severe ecological risks for freshwater, wetland, and terrestrial ecosystems. This study analyzed the current and future distributions of Sagittaria latifolia and S. macrophylla, two crucial aquatic plant species in Mexico. Species distribution models (SDM) were used, incorporating bioclimatic and topographic variables, with projections for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 using three Global Circulation Models. Niche overlap was also assessed. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt emerged as a significant region for both species. We observed substantial variability among climate models. For S. latifolia, gains ranged from 1.708% (CNRM-CM6-1 model) to 74.806% (HadGEM3-GC31-LL model) for 2041–2060, while the highest loss was 44.11% (MPI-ESM1-2-HR model). Similarly, S. macrophylla showed gains up to 73.591% (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) and losses up to 19.734% (CNRM-CM6-1). These results highlight species-specific responses to future climate scenarios. Niche overlap analyses revealed that both species currently share up to 41% of their niches, with this overlap likely to continue in the future. This study provides insights into the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, informing conservation and management strategies. Given S. latifolia’s native status and S. macrophylla’s endemic and threatened nature, understanding their distribution dynamics is crucial for conservation efforts. This research underscores the need to address climatic threats to ensure the survival of these key species and maintain the health of Mexican aquatic ecosystems.