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<p>Non-landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) traversing north and northeast of the Philippines during the southwest monsoon season (locally, <i>Habagat</i>) often enhance the prevailing moisture-laden southwest monsoon flow, inducing heavy rainfall and flooding events, particularly along the western coast of the country. One such event occurred last July 23–24, 2024 (<i>Habagat</i> 2024), when the <i>Habagat</i> was enhanced by TC GAEMI (locally, Super Typhoon CARINA) and some parts of the country received a month’s worth of rainfall. This study examines its unique features and compares it with recent <i>Habagat</i> events. Events with rainfall amounts above the 95th percentile in weather stations within Metro Manila in July and August for at least two days from 2012 to 2024 were selected for the analysis. <i>Habagat</i> 2024 produced exceptionally high rainfall, most of which occurred within 24&#xa0;h. This record rainfall was accompanied by higher than normal magnitudes of the horizontal winds, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC), stream function, vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF), and surface latent heat flux. The Moisture Conveyor Belt for the <i>Habagat</i> 2024 event, in particular, was noticeably more pronounced, which explains the higher rainfall rate relative to previous <i>Habagat</i> events. Furthermore, the VIMF anomalies were further separated into the basic flow (monsoon only) and the TC perturbation flow using spatial Fourier decomposition analysis to identify which contributes more to rainfall enhancement over Metro Manila. <i>Habagat</i> 2024 exhibited the strongest basic monsoon flow and TC perturbation flow among all events, with the latter contributing more to the rainfall enhancement.</p>

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Record Rainfall from the Enhanced Southwest Monsoon in Metro Manila, Philippines: A Comparative Study of Recent Events

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月5日

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  • Lyndon Mark Payanay Olaguera,
  • Alwin Andriel L. Bathan,
  • Edward Kyle Badua,
  • Erica N. Bañares,
  • Clint Eldrick R. Petilla,
  • John A. Manalo,
  • Faye Abigail T. Cruz,
  • Jose Ramon T. Villarin

摘要

Non-landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) traversing north and northeast of the Philippines during the southwest monsoon season (locally, Habagat) often enhance the prevailing moisture-laden southwest monsoon flow, inducing heavy rainfall and flooding events, particularly along the western coast of the country. One such event occurred last July 23–24, 2024 (Habagat 2024), when the Habagat was enhanced by TC GAEMI (locally, Super Typhoon CARINA) and some parts of the country received a month’s worth of rainfall. This study examines its unique features and compares it with recent Habagat events. Events with rainfall amounts above the 95th percentile in weather stations within Metro Manila in July and August for at least two days from 2012 to 2024 were selected for the analysis. Habagat 2024 produced exceptionally high rainfall, most of which occurred within 24 h. This record rainfall was accompanied by higher than normal magnitudes of the horizontal winds, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC), stream function, vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF), and surface latent heat flux. The Moisture Conveyor Belt for the Habagat 2024 event, in particular, was noticeably more pronounced, which explains the higher rainfall rate relative to previous Habagat events. Furthermore, the VIMF anomalies were further separated into the basic flow (monsoon only) and the TC perturbation flow using spatial Fourier decomposition analysis to identify which contributes more to rainfall enhancement over Metro Manila. Habagat 2024 exhibited the strongest basic monsoon flow and TC perturbation flow among all events, with the latter contributing more to the rainfall enhancement.