<p>Developing countries have followed a policy of manufacturing export-led economic growth to some success during the twentieth century, and in the process have become richer and more developed. However, many countries remain developing to this day. In this paper, I examine whether the strategies of countries that grew rapidly in the twentieth century can be replicated in a knowledge economy environment where many changes are happening simultaneously on societal and technological front. My GMM estimation with data from 61 developing countries in 1960 across 60 years shows that GDP growth is positively associated with, and in turn dynamically affects export share of consumer and capital goods, import share of capital goods and education. Next, I explore the challenges posed by rising nativism and consequent rise in protectionism, paradigmatic knowledge economy induced technological changes ushered in by usage of robotics, computer software and more recently, artificial intelligence in developed countries based on recent and emerging literature, and apply those insights to opine on the implications for developing countries in their pursuit of equitable growth. I conjecture that it is imperative for countries to invest in human capital and innovation and foster a greater degree of cooperation to find ways to forge a path forward.</p>

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Reexamining Path to Prosperity for Developing Countries in the age of AI

  • Shamim S Mondal

摘要

Developing countries have followed a policy of manufacturing export-led economic growth to some success during the twentieth century, and in the process have become richer and more developed. However, many countries remain developing to this day. In this paper, I examine whether the strategies of countries that grew rapidly in the twentieth century can be replicated in a knowledge economy environment where many changes are happening simultaneously on societal and technological front. My GMM estimation with data from 61 developing countries in 1960 across 60 years shows that GDP growth is positively associated with, and in turn dynamically affects export share of consumer and capital goods, import share of capital goods and education. Next, I explore the challenges posed by rising nativism and consequent rise in protectionism, paradigmatic knowledge economy induced technological changes ushered in by usage of robotics, computer software and more recently, artificial intelligence in developed countries based on recent and emerging literature, and apply those insights to opine on the implications for developing countries in their pursuit of equitable growth. I conjecture that it is imperative for countries to invest in human capital and innovation and foster a greater degree of cooperation to find ways to forge a path forward.