Moderating the Role of Human Capital and Physical Capital in Economic Growth in India: Total Factor Productivity Matters
摘要
In a knowledge economy, growth and development are largely driven by human capital and total factor productivity (TFP), alongside conventional factors such as physical capital and manual labour. This paper examines the roles of human capital, TFP, and physical capital investment, along with other conventional macroeconomic variables, in the surge in income and economic growth in India over the last four decades. An analytical framework linking these variables to economic growth, followed by econometric analysis, uses appropriate measures of key variables and reliable data. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration, and its error-correction representation, identify the long-run equilibrium relation between income and several specifications of physical capital, human capital index, TFP, and relevant control variables such as trade openness, money and population growth. Physical capital investment has long- and short-term growth effects, while human capital stimulates only short-run growth. Importantly, TFP is instrumental in the growth trajectory and has a positive impact across all estimations for the long and short run. Among the control variables, the money supply is found to have a significant positive impact on both long- and short-term growth, while population growth has a growth-retarding effect in the long run. The study suggests that a comprehensive policy for human capital formation is critical to achieving long-term, sustained growth and elevating India to a commanding position in the global knowledge landscape.