Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of ICT on Economic Complexity : Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
摘要
Despite the growing importance of digital technologies in economic transformation, the relationship between Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and economic complexity remains insufficiently explored, particularly in developing regions. This study investigates the impact of ICT diffusion on economic complexity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, it examines whether the relationship between ICT development and economic complexity exhibits nonlinear dynamics. To address this question, we construct an unbalanced panel dataset covering 32 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2023. The empirical analysis employs several complementary estimation techniques, including pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, random effects, system generalized method of moments, and quantile regression estimators to ensure the robustness of the results. The findings reveal two main insights. First, ICT diffusion significantly promotes economic complexity across the countries studied, suggesting that digital technologies facilitate the accumulation and diffusion of productive knowledge. Second, the results provide evidence of a nonlinear relationship between ICT and economic complexity. While ICT initially enhances productive sophistication, its marginal contribution diminishes beyond a certain level of diffusion, indicating the presence of threshold effects. These findings have important policy implications. To maximize the benefits of digitalization for structural transformation, governments in Sub-Saharan Africa should expand access to ICT infrastructure, particularly by reducing the digital divide between rural and urban areas. Strengthening the institutional environment to attract private investment and improving electricity supply are also crucial to support the development of manufacturing and other high-productivity sectors.