Are Earnings and Price Momentum Related? Evidence from Ten MENA Stock Markets
摘要
This paper examines the relationship between earnings and price momentum in ten MENA stock markets. By sequentially applying the CAPM, the Fama-French three-factor model, and the Fama-French five-factor Model, we found that earnings and price momentum strategies generate statistically significant and economically meaningful risk-adjusted returns in all markets except Egypt, especially after excluding periods affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subprime crises. These patterns generally persist across 3, 6, 9, and 12-month formation and holding periods. To explore the relationship between the two anomalies, we extended the five-factor model to include either a price momentum or an earnings momentum-based zero-investment portfolio. We found that, only in three out of ten markets (Jordan, Oman, and Tunisia), price momentum payoffs are subsumed by earnings momentum payoffs, while the converse is not true. This indicates that for most MENA stock markets (Bahrain, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE), earnings and price momentum strategies do not subsume each other. To take advantage of the two strategies, MENA regulators should develop a robust security lending market allowing investors to engage in short selling.