New Evidence from Defence Expenditure and Productivity Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty in France: A Wavelet Analysis
摘要
This study uses continuous wavelet analysis to evaluate the relationship between the total factor of productivity and defence spending in the presence of geopolitical risk in France. The results indicate a significant correlation between the factor of productivity and defence spending, which varies across time and frequency domains. In the time domain, the results specifically demonstrate the co-movement between the factor of productivity and defence spending in various subperiods. Similarly, the co-movements occur in the frequency domain, particularly over the short to medium range. However, the correlation becomes considerably stronger in the long term without geopolitical risk, demonstrating an increasingly close interaction between productivity and defence spending. These findings support the crowding out theory, suggesting that greater GPR prompts greater DE, which reflects lower TFP. Hence, it is essential for policymakers to closely monitor the cyclical interplay between TFP and DE across timescales.