Dynamic Economic Fluctuation with Unpredictable Uncertainty—Some Implications from the Theory of Complexity and Chaos
摘要
The discipline of economics has long been challenged by unpredictable uncertainty. This study aims to delve into the forces behind the inherent nonlinear behavior of our economic system. By exploring the implications of complexity and chaos theory, I assess the resilience of current economic theories in guiding us towards efficient allocation outcomes for society. This study acknowledges and values the potential sources of innovation and knowledge-driven economic growth that reside within the fractal gaps around which our evolving nonlinear economic system develops. On the other hand, some stopgap measures should be considered to prevent the occurrence of uncontrollable chaos. Therefore, this study suggests implementing an automatic adjustment mechanism within our economic system by incorporating a negative feedback loop that would balance the pursuit of maximum economic growth with the mitigation of accompanying income inequality. The study advocates for the promotion of a harmonious cooperative environment and the regulation of economic behavior through moral, culturally driven social norms or government policies focused on equality, in order to manage economic progress and effectively mitigate chaotic fluctuations. A computer simulation, along with a related empirical test of the current confrontational trading relationship between the USA and China, has been conducted to examine the relevance of the complexity phenomenon in relation to our economic fluctuation.