Managing Short-Term Oscillations and Fluctuations by Macroeconomic Model

The purpose of this study is to analyse the stability of the economic system of Kazakhstan using non-linear macroeconomic models and catastrophe theory to determine the limits of short-term oscillations and fluctuations. The study constructed a system of non-linear differential equations that adequately reflect the interaction of the main economic variables such as the volume of fixed assets, population, real wages, credit rates, and price level. The main results showed that the economic system of Kazakhstan is vulnerable to external shocks, especially to fluctuations in world oil prices. It was found that sharp price changes can lead to significant economic crises or periods of rapid growth. The analysis also highlights the need to diversify the economy to reduce dependence on export-oriented industries. The results of the study indicate the importance of developing strategies for economic policy management, including the regulation of tax rates, investment incentives, and other economic measures to ensure sustainable development. The practical significance of this study is that the constructed macroeconomic models allow predicting possible crisis situations and developing measures to stabilize the economy.