Assessing the Impact of Digital Financial Inclusion on Sustainable Development Goals: Analyzing Differences by Financial Development Levels Across Countries

One of the most imperative global challenges that call for numerous coordinated worldwide responses and actions is climate change. In order to promote sustainable development (SD), digital financial inclusion (DFI) has been researched as an essential element for SD. This study assesses the impact of SD across 117 countries from 2004 to 2022, using threshold and Bayesian regression methods. The results indicate that DFI positively affects SD in countries with low (FD ≤ 0.2895) and medium financial development (0.2895 < FD ≤ 0.7176), while creating a negative effect in countries with high financial development (FD > 0.7176). Therefore, we recommend that countries with low and medium FD focus on expanding access to financial services and improving digital infrastructure, especially in underserved areas. For countries with high FD, governments should adopt a balanced approach by optimizing DFI strategies to achieve supply–demand equilibrium. Additionally, DFI policies should prioritize SD sectors such as green technology and renewable energy, while curtailing financial support to industries contributing to environmental degradation.