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<p>Extreme wind events in the South China Sea (SCS) directly threaten maritime safety. With climate change altering their patterns, frequency, and intensity, understanding these changes is increasingly important. This study systematically investigates their spatiotemporal characteristics using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2023. The climatological wind speed exhibits a bimodal structure, with northeast winds dominating in winter and southwest winds prevalent in summer. During 1940–2023, the annual mean wind speed shows a modest upward trend of 0.01 ± 0.02 m/s per decade, with notable seasonal and spatial variation. These changes in mean-state wind conditions strongly influence extreme wind (EW95) events, defined as daily maximum wind gusts exceeding the local 95th percentile. The EW95 events occur about 16 d annually, with typical speeds reaching 18.8 m/s. The spatial distribution of EW95 frequency displays an inverse relationship with intensity which closely aligns with climatological wind patterns. Seasonally, frequency peaks in December, matching the climatological wind speed, while peak intensity occurs in October and resurges in April, indicating decoupled seasonal patterns between frequency and intensity. Over the study period, EW95 events have become both more frequent and intense. Frequency increased by (0.71 ± 0.37) d/a per decade, while intensity rose by (0.06 ± 0.05) m/s per decade outpacing mean wind speed changes. Seasonal trends reveal a growing concentration of EW95 events in winter, with intensified events in late spring and late summer, despite decreased frequencies during these periods. These findings highlight significant changes in extreme winds behavior in the SCS under climate change, offering valuable insights for risk management and adaptation strategies.</p>

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Intensifying extreme winds in the South China Sea under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月1日

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  • Botao Xie,
  • Yan He,
  • Haiyue Tan,
  • Wenjun Xu,
  • Xiaodan Yang,
  • Meng Wei

摘要

Extreme wind events in the South China Sea (SCS) directly threaten maritime safety. With climate change altering their patterns, frequency, and intensity, understanding these changes is increasingly important. This study systematically investigates their spatiotemporal characteristics using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2023. The climatological wind speed exhibits a bimodal structure, with northeast winds dominating in winter and southwest winds prevalent in summer. During 1940–2023, the annual mean wind speed shows a modest upward trend of 0.01 ± 0.02 m/s per decade, with notable seasonal and spatial variation. These changes in mean-state wind conditions strongly influence extreme wind (EW95) events, defined as daily maximum wind gusts exceeding the local 95th percentile. The EW95 events occur about 16 d annually, with typical speeds reaching 18.8 m/s. The spatial distribution of EW95 frequency displays an inverse relationship with intensity which closely aligns with climatological wind patterns. Seasonally, frequency peaks in December, matching the climatological wind speed, while peak intensity occurs in October and resurges in April, indicating decoupled seasonal patterns between frequency and intensity. Over the study period, EW95 events have become both more frequent and intense. Frequency increased by (0.71 ± 0.37) d/a per decade, while intensity rose by (0.06 ± 0.05) m/s per decade outpacing mean wind speed changes. Seasonal trends reveal a growing concentration of EW95 events in winter, with intensified events in late spring and late summer, despite decreased frequencies during these periods. These findings highlight significant changes in extreme winds behavior in the SCS under climate change, offering valuable insights for risk management and adaptation strategies.