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<p>Quantifying spatiotemporal variations in water levels and their responses to external drivers (e.g., morphology, river discharge, and sea level) is critical for sustainable water resource management. However, simple methods for distinguishing the impacts of upstream river discharge, downstream sea level, and morphological changes on estuarine water levels remain limited. This study applied a revised triple linear regression model to reconstruct historical water levels (1965–2017) in the highly human-modified Zhujiang River Estuary (ZRE). The strong agreement between reconstructed and observed water levels (root mean square error &lt; 0.17 m; coefficient of determination &gt; 0.90) confirms the model reliability in quantifying drivers of water level variations. Results show morphological evolution as the dominant factor, causing an average water level decrease of 0.13 m, with declines increasing upstream from the estuary mouth. Sea level rise moderately elevated water levels by approximately 0.08 m on average. Reservoir regulation altered flow distribution and seasonal discharge patterns, weakening river discharge effects on downstream water levels in the lower West River, yet strengthening effects in the lower North River, averaging a 0.09 m water level decrease. These alterations further modified spatial water level slopes: reduced slopes in the lower West River primarily resulted from discharge changes, while morphological evolution dominated in the lower North River. Scenario simulations revealed significant water level responses to extreme events: an upstream discharge increase from 25 000 m<sup>3</sup>/s to 55 000 m<sup>3</sup>/s elevated upstream water levels by 3.47 m on average; relative sea level rise during storm surges from 1.50 m to 3.00 m increased downstream water levels by 1.34 m. These findings provide valuable guidance for flood prevention and water resource management in the ZRE and similarly modified estuaries worldwide.</p>

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Unraveling contributors to stepwise water level variations in the Zhujiang River Estuary

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月1日

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  • Bo Li,
  • Hao Yang,
  • Jing Liu,
  • Feng Liu,
  • Suying Ou,
  • Jianliang Lin,
  • Huayang Cai

摘要

Quantifying spatiotemporal variations in water levels and their responses to external drivers (e.g., morphology, river discharge, and sea level) is critical for sustainable water resource management. However, simple methods for distinguishing the impacts of upstream river discharge, downstream sea level, and morphological changes on estuarine water levels remain limited. This study applied a revised triple linear regression model to reconstruct historical water levels (1965–2017) in the highly human-modified Zhujiang River Estuary (ZRE). The strong agreement between reconstructed and observed water levels (root mean square error < 0.17 m; coefficient of determination > 0.90) confirms the model reliability in quantifying drivers of water level variations. Results show morphological evolution as the dominant factor, causing an average water level decrease of 0.13 m, with declines increasing upstream from the estuary mouth. Sea level rise moderately elevated water levels by approximately 0.08 m on average. Reservoir regulation altered flow distribution and seasonal discharge patterns, weakening river discharge effects on downstream water levels in the lower West River, yet strengthening effects in the lower North River, averaging a 0.09 m water level decrease. These alterations further modified spatial water level slopes: reduced slopes in the lower West River primarily resulted from discharge changes, while morphological evolution dominated in the lower North River. Scenario simulations revealed significant water level responses to extreme events: an upstream discharge increase from 25 000 m3/s to 55 000 m3/s elevated upstream water levels by 3.47 m on average; relative sea level rise during storm surges from 1.50 m to 3.00 m increased downstream water levels by 1.34 m. These findings provide valuable guidance for flood prevention and water resource management in the ZRE and similarly modified estuaries worldwide.