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<p>With their suitable habitats significantly affected by climate change and human activities, most of the seven globally recognized sea turtles are facing endangerment. In order to predict their present and future (2090–2100) potentially suitable habitats, we utilized the MaxEnt model, incorporating occurrence data for various sea turtle species and environmental datasets under current conditions, as well as under two climate scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Our findings showed that the key environmental variables, such as temperature and distance from shore predominantly influence the prediction on the potentially suitable habitat for sea turtles. The most highly suitable habitats for sea turtles are predominantly found in the tropical coastal waters bordering continents, including South and North America, Asia, and Australia. Under the climate scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for 2090–2100, the anticipated loss of potential suitable habitats is expected to surpass any potential gains for all sea turtle species. The Kemp’s ridley sea turtle (<i>Lepidochelys kempii</i>) is especially vulnerable, with its potentially suitable habitat area projected to decrease by 0.43% under SSP1-2.6 scenario to 6.15% under SSP5-8.5 scenario. In contrast, the most resilient <i>Dermochelys coriacea</i> is projected with a reduction of 1.02% under SSP1-2.6 and 0.57% under SSP5-8.5 in its potentially suitable habitat. These varying responses to climate change inferred the necessity for species-specific conservation strategies. However, only 9.9% of the integrated potentially suitable habitat is protected within the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA), which suggested the extending of WDPA for more efficiency on the sea turtle conservation.</p>

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Prediction on the potentially suitable habitat change of sea turtles under different climate scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月1日

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  • Ailian Hu,
  • Juan Yang,
  • Jianxin Xia,
  • Chengbing Song,
  • Wenquan Zhang

摘要

With their suitable habitats significantly affected by climate change and human activities, most of the seven globally recognized sea turtles are facing endangerment. In order to predict their present and future (2090–2100) potentially suitable habitats, we utilized the MaxEnt model, incorporating occurrence data for various sea turtle species and environmental datasets under current conditions, as well as under two climate scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Our findings showed that the key environmental variables, such as temperature and distance from shore predominantly influence the prediction on the potentially suitable habitat for sea turtles. The most highly suitable habitats for sea turtles are predominantly found in the tropical coastal waters bordering continents, including South and North America, Asia, and Australia. Under the climate scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for 2090–2100, the anticipated loss of potential suitable habitats is expected to surpass any potential gains for all sea turtle species. The Kemp’s ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) is especially vulnerable, with its potentially suitable habitat area projected to decrease by 0.43% under SSP1-2.6 scenario to 6.15% under SSP5-8.5 scenario. In contrast, the most resilient Dermochelys coriacea is projected with a reduction of 1.02% under SSP1-2.6 and 0.57% under SSP5-8.5 in its potentially suitable habitat. These varying responses to climate change inferred the necessity for species-specific conservation strategies. However, only 9.9% of the integrated potentially suitable habitat is protected within the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA), which suggested the extending of WDPA for more efficiency on the sea turtle conservation.