Assessing the degree of impact from iceberg activities on penguin colonies of Clarence Island

During August and September 2023, three giant icebergs, each bigger than Paris, successively grazed Clarence Island in the northeast of the Antarctic Peninsula, a home to a population of over 100 000 penguins. This incident may serve as a clarion call for the increasing iceberg calving due to global warming and its subsequent impact on the Antarctic ecosystem. Here we investigate this unexpected event and employ historical records and probabilistic analyses of iceberg grounding to assess the degree of impact on penguin colonies of Clarence Island. Among the eleven colonies, there is one with low impact, eight with medium impact, and two with high impact. The low-impact colony, Cape Lloyd, is located in the northern part of the island, while the high-impact colonies, False Ridge and Pink Pool, are in the southeast. The eight medium-impact colonies are distributed along both the eastern and western coasts of the island. This study provides essential support for evaluating the impact of iceberg activity on penguin colonies. We argue that penguin colonies located in areas prone to iceberg drift, such as Clarence Island, may become more vulnerable to the heightened risk of iceberg collisions or groundings in the warming future. Therefore, we hope the public will become more aware of the grave impacts of climate change on penguins and underscore the urgent need for effective conservation strategies.