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<p>The grey wolf <i>Canis lupus</i> is legally protected in Europe under the Habitats Directive and the Bern Convention, requiring population monitoring for conservation issues. In France, long-term monitoring relies on the collection of non-invasive samples genotyped at 22 microsatellite loci to identify individuals and estimate population size. To avoid bias in subsequent capture-recapture models, this study assessed the accuracy of the mismatch method used for individual identification and recapture detection. Based on simulations from true allelic frequencies and sensitivity analyses incorporating genotyping quality, recapture rates, and assignment methods, the three-mismatch method threshold showed high accuracy, with only 0.82% of multilocus genotypes incorrectly assigned and a mean underestimation of individuals of 0.47%. It outperformed alternative thresholds and showed comparable accuracy to the likelihood clustering method, while offering greater computational efficiency. These results support the reliable use of samples collected and analyzed within the French grey wolf monitoring program in capture-mark-recapture models for robust population size estimation.</p>

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Assessing the effectiveness of the mismatch method to identify distinct individuals from non-invasive samples: application to the French wolf population

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Agathe Pirog,
  • Sabine Rousselot,
  • Cécile Kaerle,
  • Didier Casane,
  • Christophe Duchamp,
  • Guillaume Queney

摘要

The grey wolf Canis lupus is legally protected in Europe under the Habitats Directive and the Bern Convention, requiring population monitoring for conservation issues. In France, long-term monitoring relies on the collection of non-invasive samples genotyped at 22 microsatellite loci to identify individuals and estimate population size. To avoid bias in subsequent capture-recapture models, this study assessed the accuracy of the mismatch method used for individual identification and recapture detection. Based on simulations from true allelic frequencies and sensitivity analyses incorporating genotyping quality, recapture rates, and assignment methods, the three-mismatch method threshold showed high accuracy, with only 0.82% of multilocus genotypes incorrectly assigned and a mean underestimation of individuals of 0.47%. It outperformed alternative thresholds and showed comparable accuracy to the likelihood clustering method, while offering greater computational efficiency. These results support the reliable use of samples collected and analyzed within the French grey wolf monitoring program in capture-mark-recapture models for robust population size estimation.