Clinical and molecular prognostic nomograms for patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma

To summarize the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic factors of papillary renal cell carcinoma (pRCC) and to construct clinical and molecular prognostic nomograms using existing databases.

Clinical prognostic models were developed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, while molecular prognostic models were constructed using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Cox regression and LASSO regression were employed to identify clinicopathological features and molecular markers related to prognosis. The accuracy of the prognostic models was assessed using ROC curves, C-index, decision curve analysis (DCA) curves, and calibration plots.

In the 2004–2015 SEER cohort, Cox regression analysis revealed that age, grade, AJCC stage, N stage, M stage, and surgery were independent predictors of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in pRCC patients. ROC curves, C-index, and DCA curves indicated that the prognostic nomogram based on clinical independent predictors had better predictive ability than TNM staging and SEER staging. Additionally, in the TCGA cohort, M stage, clinical stage, and the molecular markers IDO1 and PLK1 were identified as independent risk factors. The prognostic nomogram based on molecular independent risk factors effectively predicted the 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS for pRCC patients.

The clinical and molecular nomograms constructed in this study provide robust predictive tools for individualized prognosis in pRCC patients, offering better accuracy than traditional staging systems.