Appliance-wise residential monthly average daily load profile simulation for 2022 and 2030 in Auroville, India

Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide flexibility services required to manage high penetrations of variable renewable energy in the grid. With increasing appliance ownership rates, the residential sector will increasingly contribute to peak load. The objective of this study is to simulate appliance-wise residential monthly average daily load profiles for 2022 and 2030 as the input for future DR potential quantification. In the context of India with an absence of data, this study proposes a methodology by combining metered time-series data and survey data to simulate appliance-wise load profiles in a region in Auroville, India, consisting of 100 households. The results are validated by using aggregate domestic smart meter data. In 2030, air conditioners and electric water heaters contribute to almost half of the appliance-wise peak load in the evening and a secondary peak in the morning, respectively. Electric vehicles and refrigerators each contribute to around 1/5th of the peak load, while 6% of the secondary peak is from washing machines. Importantly, the appliance-wise peak load in 2030 will increase by 60.8% from the current peak, highlighting the importance of residential DR to reduce the system peak while indicating other measures to reduce overall electricity consumption.