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<p>The transition to green hydrogen is increasingly shaped by the fragility of rare earth elements (REEs) supply chains. This study examines how REEs price volatility driven by geopolitical disruptions affects hydrogen infrastructure costs and scalability. Using a hybrid methodology combining Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecasting with geopolitical scenario analysis, we forecast the behavior of neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium prices under stress conditions such as Myanmar’s mining bans and Red Sea transport disruptions. The ANN model outperformed ARIMA and XGBoost benchmarks, capturing nonlinear volatility patterns and signaling early warnings of material shocks. Results indicate that REEs price surges can elevate the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) by up to 9% in PEM electrolyzer systems. These findings underscore that hydrogen’s energy independence may be compromised by new material dependencies. The paper concludes that achieving hydrogen resilience requires linking energy sovereignty with material sovereignty through diversified refining capacity, circular economy measures, and regional cooperation.</p>

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A foresight study on the geopolitical vulnerabilities of the rare earth supply chain in securing green hydrogen

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月24日

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  • İsmail Hilali,
  • Mehmet Akif İlkhan,
  • Nergiz Ülker

摘要

The transition to green hydrogen is increasingly shaped by the fragility of rare earth elements (REEs) supply chains. This study examines how REEs price volatility driven by geopolitical disruptions affects hydrogen infrastructure costs and scalability. Using a hybrid methodology combining Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecasting with geopolitical scenario analysis, we forecast the behavior of neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium prices under stress conditions such as Myanmar’s mining bans and Red Sea transport disruptions. The ANN model outperformed ARIMA and XGBoost benchmarks, capturing nonlinear volatility patterns and signaling early warnings of material shocks. Results indicate that REEs price surges can elevate the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) by up to 9% in PEM electrolyzer systems. These findings underscore that hydrogen’s energy independence may be compromised by new material dependencies. The paper concludes that achieving hydrogen resilience requires linking energy sovereignty with material sovereignty through diversified refining capacity, circular economy measures, and regional cooperation.