<p>Trabzon, located in the Eastern Black Sea region of Türkiye, ranks among the provinces with the highest frequency of landslides, with a total of 1,673 recorded events between 1950 and 2019. In-situ measurements play a crucial role in supporting efforts aimed at mitigating the impacts of this common geohazard. In this study, geophysical parameters, specifically the average shear wave velocity in the upper 30&#xa0;m (V<sub>S30</sub>) and Ground Shear Strain (GSS), derived from surface wave data obtained through previous geophysical surveys, were integrated into a landslide susceptibility analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An updated landslide susceptibility map was produced as a result. To evaluate the impact of incorporating geophysical parameters, two separate susceptibility maps were generated: one based on 11 input parameters (including geophysical data) and another using only 8 conventional parameters (excluding geophysical data). The two AHP-based models’ performance was assessed using Success Rate Curves and ROC–AUC analysis, which indicate that the 11-parameter model identifies a larger proportion of observed landslides within smaller portions of the study area and yields a higher AUC value (0.623) compared to the 8-parameter model (0.551), suggesting improved spatial discrimination. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that approximately 50% of the study area falls within zones classified as susceptible to landslides based on the 11-parameter model, emphasizing the critical need for targeted and proactive landslide risk management strategies in the region.</p>

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Assesment of landslide susceptibility through analytical hierarchy process including surface wave data for Trabzon Degirmendere Valley (NE Türkiye)

  • Ozgenc Akin,
  • Kaan Hakan Coban,
  • Muhammet Oguz Sunnetci,
  • Mustafa Senkaya,
  • Nilgun Sayil

摘要

Trabzon, located in the Eastern Black Sea region of Türkiye, ranks among the provinces with the highest frequency of landslides, with a total of 1,673 recorded events between 1950 and 2019. In-situ measurements play a crucial role in supporting efforts aimed at mitigating the impacts of this common geohazard. In this study, geophysical parameters, specifically the average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m (VS30) and Ground Shear Strain (GSS), derived from surface wave data obtained through previous geophysical surveys, were integrated into a landslide susceptibility analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An updated landslide susceptibility map was produced as a result. To evaluate the impact of incorporating geophysical parameters, two separate susceptibility maps were generated: one based on 11 input parameters (including geophysical data) and another using only 8 conventional parameters (excluding geophysical data). The two AHP-based models’ performance was assessed using Success Rate Curves and ROC–AUC analysis, which indicate that the 11-parameter model identifies a larger proportion of observed landslides within smaller portions of the study area and yields a higher AUC value (0.623) compared to the 8-parameter model (0.551), suggesting improved spatial discrimination. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that approximately 50% of the study area falls within zones classified as susceptible to landslides based on the 11-parameter model, emphasizing the critical need for targeted and proactive landslide risk management strategies in the region.