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<p>Streamflow generation in cold and arid regions is more complex and sensitive to climate warming than other climatic zones. This study investigated the responses of streamflow components to future climate change (2021–2050) in the headwater catchment of the Manas River in northwest China. We employed an integrated modelling framework that combined trend-preserving bias-corrected outputs from five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of the CORDEX-East Asia project with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) simulations. The SRM exhibited strong performance in streamflow simulation (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency &gt; 0.82), while the bias correction significantly enhanced the reliability of climate projections, reducing precipitation biases by 50–90%. Climate projections indicated a pronounced shift toward warmer and wetter, with mean annual precipitation increasing by 20 ± 30% and temperature rising by 2.1 ± 0.6℃. Streamflow was projected to increase by 23 ± 7%, with larger seasonal variations in spring and autumn than winter and summer. Snowmelt runoff contribution increased from 41 ± 1% (historical) to 45 ± 3%, particularly under higher emissions. Rainfall runoff exhibited more variable trends, and its contribution increased from 29 ± 2% to 34 ± 5% under RCP4.5, but declined to 28 ± 3% under RCP8.5. These findings demonstrate substantial shifts in streamflow components, underscoring the need for adaptive water resource management in cold and arid regions under climate change.</p>

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Climate warming alters snowmelt and rainfall-runoff partitioning in a cold-region headwater basin of Northwest China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月5日

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  • Peijun Shi,
  • Wuchao Yang,
  • Zhi Li

摘要

Streamflow generation in cold and arid regions is more complex and sensitive to climate warming than other climatic zones. This study investigated the responses of streamflow components to future climate change (2021–2050) in the headwater catchment of the Manas River in northwest China. We employed an integrated modelling framework that combined trend-preserving bias-corrected outputs from five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of the CORDEX-East Asia project with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) simulations. The SRM exhibited strong performance in streamflow simulation (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.82), while the bias correction significantly enhanced the reliability of climate projections, reducing precipitation biases by 50–90%. Climate projections indicated a pronounced shift toward warmer and wetter, with mean annual precipitation increasing by 20 ± 30% and temperature rising by 2.1 ± 0.6℃. Streamflow was projected to increase by 23 ± 7%, with larger seasonal variations in spring and autumn than winter and summer. Snowmelt runoff contribution increased from 41 ± 1% (historical) to 45 ± 3%, particularly under higher emissions. Rainfall runoff exhibited more variable trends, and its contribution increased from 29 ± 2% to 34 ± 5% under RCP4.5, but declined to 28 ± 3% under RCP8.5. These findings demonstrate substantial shifts in streamflow components, underscoring the need for adaptive water resource management in cold and arid regions under climate change.