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<p>Tailings dam failures can trigger destructive floods, yet their mechanisms, particularly for non-liquefied tailings, remain poorly understood. Previous studies have largely focused on liquefied tailings, purely physical experiments, or side-slope effects. This study extends prior work by integrating physical experiments with two-dimensional HEC-RAS modeling to analyze both near-abutment (NTA) and far-from-abutment (FTA) failures in a unified framework. FTA breaches with a width of 20&#xa0;cm were tested under three initial water surface elevations (WSE) and compared with NTA cases to evaluate erosion patterns and the ratio of released tailings to reservoir water. Numerical simulations were calibrated and validated against laboratory data using temporal WSE, eroded dimensions, and released mass. With the validated model, the effects of breach width, initial WSE, reservoir geometry, and breach location on outflow hydrographs were systematically examined. Results showed that erosion was more pronounced in FTA breaches, while the ratio of eroded tailings volume to reservoir water remained nearly constant at ~ 1%. Breach location had minimal influence on hydrographs. Predictive formulas for WSE decline and hydrograph evolution, derived through dimensional analysis and non-dimensionalization, provided reliable peak discharge estimates and upper-bound hydrograph predictions, offering practical tools for risk assessment and mitigation.</p>

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“Flood hydrograph analysis of tailings dam failure”

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月2日

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  • Arian Eghbali,
  • Parham Shayan,
  • Mohammadsaleh Darvishi,
  • Mitra Javan,
  • Omid Mohseni

摘要

Tailings dam failures can trigger destructive floods, yet their mechanisms, particularly for non-liquefied tailings, remain poorly understood. Previous studies have largely focused on liquefied tailings, purely physical experiments, or side-slope effects. This study extends prior work by integrating physical experiments with two-dimensional HEC-RAS modeling to analyze both near-abutment (NTA) and far-from-abutment (FTA) failures in a unified framework. FTA breaches with a width of 20 cm were tested under three initial water surface elevations (WSE) and compared with NTA cases to evaluate erosion patterns and the ratio of released tailings to reservoir water. Numerical simulations were calibrated and validated against laboratory data using temporal WSE, eroded dimensions, and released mass. With the validated model, the effects of breach width, initial WSE, reservoir geometry, and breach location on outflow hydrographs were systematically examined. Results showed that erosion was more pronounced in FTA breaches, while the ratio of eroded tailings volume to reservoir water remained nearly constant at ~ 1%. Breach location had minimal influence on hydrographs. Predictive formulas for WSE decline and hydrograph evolution, derived through dimensional analysis and non-dimensionalization, provided reliable peak discharge estimates and upper-bound hydrograph predictions, offering practical tools for risk assessment and mitigation.