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<p>When the PIM (Probability Integration Method) was applied to predicting surface subsidence for grouted backfill mining with overlying thick loose layers, it resulted in reduced accuracy, and the predicted values converged too rapidly at the edge of the subsidence basin. As a case study, this paper focuses on surface subsidence in grouted backfill mining at working face 1076 of Yangliu Coal Mine in the Huaibei Mining District. According to the principle of transferring the subsidence of grouted backfill mining, this study treated the bed separation cavity in the overburden strata as a semi-ellipsoid. It proposed an improved method for calculating the subsidence coefficient <i>q</i> in the PIM prediction model and established the surface subsidence dynamics prediction model called SEDC-Boltzmann (Semi-Ellipsoid Delamination Cavity-Boltzmann). The model was used for the dynamic prediction of surface subsidence in the grouting working face 1076 during the mining and grouting period. The prediction results were consistent with the monitored values from SBAS-InSAR (Small Baseline Subsets Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) technology and leveling measurements. This model overcomes the flaw of predicted values converging too rapidly at the edge of the subsidence basin. Its prediction accuracy improved by 16.5% compared to the IDPIM (Improved Dynamic Probability Integral Method) model and by 33.1% compared to the PIM model. Therefore, the SEDC-Boltzmann model proposed in this paper holds significant potential for predicting and evaluating geological hazards in mining areas.</p>

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A model for dynamic prediction of surface subsidence due to grouted backfill mining with overlying thick loose layers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月18日

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  • Qiyong Zhang,
  • Liuguo Zhu,
  • Keming Yang,
  • Zijun Yang,
  • Yaxing Li

摘要

When the PIM (Probability Integration Method) was applied to predicting surface subsidence for grouted backfill mining with overlying thick loose layers, it resulted in reduced accuracy, and the predicted values converged too rapidly at the edge of the subsidence basin. As a case study, this paper focuses on surface subsidence in grouted backfill mining at working face 1076 of Yangliu Coal Mine in the Huaibei Mining District. According to the principle of transferring the subsidence of grouted backfill mining, this study treated the bed separation cavity in the overburden strata as a semi-ellipsoid. It proposed an improved method for calculating the subsidence coefficient q in the PIM prediction model and established the surface subsidence dynamics prediction model called SEDC-Boltzmann (Semi-Ellipsoid Delamination Cavity-Boltzmann). The model was used for the dynamic prediction of surface subsidence in the grouting working face 1076 during the mining and grouting period. The prediction results were consistent with the monitored values from SBAS-InSAR (Small Baseline Subsets Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) technology and leveling measurements. This model overcomes the flaw of predicted values converging too rapidly at the edge of the subsidence basin. Its prediction accuracy improved by 16.5% compared to the IDPIM (Improved Dynamic Probability Integral Method) model and by 33.1% compared to the PIM model. Therefore, the SEDC-Boltzmann model proposed in this paper holds significant potential for predicting and evaluating geological hazards in mining areas.