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<p>Strong seismic events can induce co-seismic slope instability, and the subsequent rainfall can further aggravate the damage within accumulation landslides, posing compounded hazards. Understanding the multi-stage failure mechanisms and assessing the associated risks under sequential earthquake–rainfall conditions are vital for disaster prevention in seismic regions. This study focuses on the K3-H05 landslide along the Hailuogou Scenic Road, triggered by the 2022 Luding Earthquake. A simplified pre- and post-event landslide model was constructed based on UAV imagery, and the dynamic damage to the slope induced by seismic shaking was analyzed through the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) and the Newmark permanent displacement analysis. Coupled stress–seepage simulations, incorporating regional rainfall data, were employed to evaluate slope stability under post-seismic precipitation conditions. Moreover, the secondary instability process was simulated using the Finite Volume Method (FVM) incorporating <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mu \left( I \right)\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> rheological constitutive model. The results indicate that seismic acceleration is amplified significantly at slope crests and the interface between loose accumulation layer and bedrock, with permanent displacement corresponding to “super high” risk level, consistent with field observations. The post-earthquake degradation of the soil structure, combined with sustained rainfall, reduced the slope safety factor below unity, substantially elevating the likelihood of secondary failure. The landslide subsequently destroyed portions of the scenic road and deposited substantial material at the slope toe. Based on the findings, post-disaster reconstruction strategies such as elevated bridges and piled slab walls are proposed to mitigate future risks. This research provides technical references for slope risk prevention and control in high-intensity seismic zones.</p>

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Multi-stage instability mechanisms and risk analysis of accumulation landslides under sequential earthquake-rainfall actions: a case study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月26日

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  • Xuehan Zhao,
  • Xiaodong Fu,
  • Kai Wu,
  • Zhenping Zhang,
  • Tian Xi,
  • Jingyu Kang,
  • Qian Sheng

摘要

Strong seismic events can induce co-seismic slope instability, and the subsequent rainfall can further aggravate the damage within accumulation landslides, posing compounded hazards. Understanding the multi-stage failure mechanisms and assessing the associated risks under sequential earthquake–rainfall conditions are vital for disaster prevention in seismic regions. This study focuses on the K3-H05 landslide along the Hailuogou Scenic Road, triggered by the 2022 Luding Earthquake. A simplified pre- and post-event landslide model was constructed based on UAV imagery, and the dynamic damage to the slope induced by seismic shaking was analyzed through the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) and the Newmark permanent displacement analysis. Coupled stress–seepage simulations, incorporating regional rainfall data, were employed to evaluate slope stability under post-seismic precipitation conditions. Moreover, the secondary instability process was simulated using the Finite Volume Method (FVM) incorporating \(\mu \left( I \right)\) rheological constitutive model. The results indicate that seismic acceleration is amplified significantly at slope crests and the interface between loose accumulation layer and bedrock, with permanent displacement corresponding to “super high” risk level, consistent with field observations. The post-earthquake degradation of the soil structure, combined with sustained rainfall, reduced the slope safety factor below unity, substantially elevating the likelihood of secondary failure. The landslide subsequently destroyed portions of the scenic road and deposited substantial material at the slope toe. Based on the findings, post-disaster reconstruction strategies such as elevated bridges and piled slab walls are proposed to mitigate future risks. This research provides technical references for slope risk prevention and control in high-intensity seismic zones.