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<p>Earth’s climate is changing, driven by global warming, which impacts the regional ecosystem’s net primary productivity (NPP) across the globe. In this study, using satellite time series data of the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), climatic observations and an ecosystem model, we investigated the impact of the climate on the greenness trend across India during 2001–2022. The NDVI time series and its transformation NPP, estimated through the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model, were analysed to estimate the linear greenness trends. The greening (positive NDVI trends) and browning (negative NDVI trends) were decomposed into the climatic contributions: temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation through a canonical gradient splitting method. It is shown that spatial patterns of NDVI and NPP trends are highly coherent and exhibit distinct regimes of climatic controls. The favourable impact (&gt; 40%) on the greening is estimated in the eastern belt (lower Indo-Gangetic plain, eastern coastal plain, northeast states and southern Plateau) and the northern belt of India (upper Indo-Gangetic plain and western Himalaya). In contrast, the semiarid Rajasthan and Gujarat experienced adverse climate impacts on their greening. At the national scale, the cropland sees higher greening with 44% linear growth and forest land experienced less greening with 24% growth in the NPP budgets for the study period. The climate impact is favourable and intense for the cropland (66%), deciduous forests (56%), and evergreen needle leaf forests (96%) and adverse for the evergreen broadleaf forests (-98%). An increase in precipitation and temperature drives enhanced productivity in the cropland dominant Indo-genetic plane. The increase in precipitation is a major driver of enhanced productivity in central India and Rajasthan. Dimming of solar irradiance coupled with increased precipitation favoured the productivity in grassland and cropland-dominant regions of the coastal plain and southern Plateau. It adversely impacts the productivity in the forest-dominant northeast states. Our results highlight the need for region-specific land management strategies, including prioritizing climate-resilient agricultural practices, targeted irrigation and water management in semi-arid zones, and strengthened conservation efforts in forested regions—particularly the northeast—where adverse climatic trends threaten ecosystem health.</p>

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Characteristics and climate driver of the greenness trends of the Indian ecosystem during 2001–2022

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月17日

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  • A. Bhuvana Chandra,
  • Rabindra Kumar Nayak,
  • Noel M. Chawang,
  • M. V. Ramana,
  • G. Srinivas Rao,
  • Prakash Chauhan

摘要

Earth’s climate is changing, driven by global warming, which impacts the regional ecosystem’s net primary productivity (NPP) across the globe. In this study, using satellite time series data of the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI), climatic observations and an ecosystem model, we investigated the impact of the climate on the greenness trend across India during 2001–2022. The NDVI time series and its transformation NPP, estimated through the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model, were analysed to estimate the linear greenness trends. The greening (positive NDVI trends) and browning (negative NDVI trends) were decomposed into the climatic contributions: temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation through a canonical gradient splitting method. It is shown that spatial patterns of NDVI and NPP trends are highly coherent and exhibit distinct regimes of climatic controls. The favourable impact (> 40%) on the greening is estimated in the eastern belt (lower Indo-Gangetic plain, eastern coastal plain, northeast states and southern Plateau) and the northern belt of India (upper Indo-Gangetic plain and western Himalaya). In contrast, the semiarid Rajasthan and Gujarat experienced adverse climate impacts on their greening. At the national scale, the cropland sees higher greening with 44% linear growth and forest land experienced less greening with 24% growth in the NPP budgets for the study period. The climate impact is favourable and intense for the cropland (66%), deciduous forests (56%), and evergreen needle leaf forests (96%) and adverse for the evergreen broadleaf forests (-98%). An increase in precipitation and temperature drives enhanced productivity in the cropland dominant Indo-genetic plane. The increase in precipitation is a major driver of enhanced productivity in central India and Rajasthan. Dimming of solar irradiance coupled with increased precipitation favoured the productivity in grassland and cropland-dominant regions of the coastal plain and southern Plateau. It adversely impacts the productivity in the forest-dominant northeast states. Our results highlight the need for region-specific land management strategies, including prioritizing climate-resilient agricultural practices, targeted irrigation and water management in semi-arid zones, and strengthened conservation efforts in forested regions—particularly the northeast—where adverse climatic trends threaten ecosystem health.