Scenario spatial planning evaluation model for subsidence-economic resilience environment in geohazard prone-coastal megacities: urban underground space (UUS) development in Shanghai by year 2035

Coastal megacity like Shanghai is continuously challenged with natural-anthropogenic geo-environmental hazards and risks which possess high correlations between land subsidence (LS), socio-economic development, current and future underground space development (UUS). This research focuses on comprehensive evaluation geo-environmental risks and scenario spatial planning model towards economic impact (EI) resilience of UUS the context of large subsidence hazard prone coastal megacity. Newly established factors are used as indicators to understand the relations and scenario prediction by 2035. The cause-effect relations are analysed via structural equation modelling (SEM), spatiotemporal and scenario spatial modelling in ArcGIS platform based on the secondary big open multisource data. Spatiotemporal pattern basis between year 1960–2020 and urban planning growth theories, results indicate expansion of subsidence and UUS in parallel with economic impact from city centre to new five suburb districts by 2035 with prediction of 75% of areas in medium to high hazard risk assessment category areas. This research can be referred to coastal megacities with land subsidence issues for economic resilient multidisciplinary geo-environmental hazard management, UUS development and urban planning policies formulation.