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<p>The Bay of Algiers constitutes a highly dynamic and complex environment with significant ecological and socio-economic functions. Based on this, a methodological approach utilizing both numerical and empirical methods have been developed to analyze the probabilities of extreme wave occurrences at a spatiotemporal scale, emphasizing morphodynamic factors and their evolution in response to hydrodynamic regimes and anthropogenic factors. These factors, are crucial for coastal risk assessment along the coastline. The statistical analysis of hourly wave records over the past 30&#xa0;years has aimed to quantify return levels during exceptional events. This analysis employed the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) methods, which are currently standard practices in extreme events. Moreover, it was deemed appropriate to consider the Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach with GPD, as it offers advantages in threshold selection techniques (Hs = 3.4&#xa0;m) supported by a set of complementary statistical tests to reduce operator subjectivity. The exceptional events identified through statistical processing were then configured using a coupled numerical model (MIKE 21/3 FM) on an unstructured grid calibrated with field data. This setup allowed for the simulation of multiple scenarios of wave propagation and current flow over a complex bathymetry, highlighting variations in coastal processes according to extreme significant wave heights (Hs). Six storm episodes were identified, with a significant impact on the coastal zone where waves dissipate their initial energy. As the Hs increases, the intensity and speed of the current also rise, facilitating the generation of longshore drift and offshore return currents. The projections and calculations carried out for flood studies along the Bay of Algiers indicate a vulnerability in low-altitude areas, where the land loss is estimated to stand at 729.31&#xa0;ha with a minimum flood level (3.4&#xa0;m) and at 1437.59&#xa0;ha at a maximum level (6.4&#xa0;m). This analysis enabled the development of an effective coastal risk management strategy that aims to map coastal areas affected by marine inundation.</p>

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Estimation of Extreme Wave and Wind Design Parameters and Impact of Storm Propagation Speed on Coastal Flood Hazard in the Center Coast of Algiers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月2日

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  • Rachida Belhout,
  • Khoudir Mezouar,
  • Selma Chahtou,
  • Youcef Khamallah

摘要

The Bay of Algiers constitutes a highly dynamic and complex environment with significant ecological and socio-economic functions. Based on this, a methodological approach utilizing both numerical and empirical methods have been developed to analyze the probabilities of extreme wave occurrences at a spatiotemporal scale, emphasizing morphodynamic factors and their evolution in response to hydrodynamic regimes and anthropogenic factors. These factors, are crucial for coastal risk assessment along the coastline. The statistical analysis of hourly wave records over the past 30 years has aimed to quantify return levels during exceptional events. This analysis employed the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) methods, which are currently standard practices in extreme events. Moreover, it was deemed appropriate to consider the Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach with GPD, as it offers advantages in threshold selection techniques (Hs = 3.4 m) supported by a set of complementary statistical tests to reduce operator subjectivity. The exceptional events identified through statistical processing were then configured using a coupled numerical model (MIKE 21/3 FM) on an unstructured grid calibrated with field data. This setup allowed for the simulation of multiple scenarios of wave propagation and current flow over a complex bathymetry, highlighting variations in coastal processes according to extreme significant wave heights (Hs). Six storm episodes were identified, with a significant impact on the coastal zone where waves dissipate their initial energy. As the Hs increases, the intensity and speed of the current also rise, facilitating the generation of longshore drift and offshore return currents. The projections and calculations carried out for flood studies along the Bay of Algiers indicate a vulnerability in low-altitude areas, where the land loss is estimated to stand at 729.31 ha with a minimum flood level (3.4 m) and at 1437.59 ha at a maximum level (6.4 m). This analysis enabled the development of an effective coastal risk management strategy that aims to map coastal areas affected by marine inundation.