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<p>Nigeria continues to experience persistent food insecurity despite its significant agricultural potential. This study examines how environmental and demographic pressures influence food security, measured using the Food Production Index (FPI) as a proxy for national food availability. Specifically, the study investigates the effects of land degradation, fertilizer consumption, grazing land pressure, permanent cropland, and population density on food security in Nigeria. Using quarterly data from 1990 to 2023, the study applies the Modified Kernel Regularized Quantile Regression (MKRQR) approach to capture nonlinear and heterogeneous effects across different levels of food security. The results reveal that land degradation and grazing pressure consistently exert significant negative effects across most quantiles of the food production distribution, indicating that environmental stress undermines food system performance. In contrast, permanent cropland expansion, fertilizer consumption, and population density generally enhance food security, although the magnitude of these effects varies across quantiles. These findings highlight that the determinants of food security operate differently across the distribution of food production. The study recommends targeted policy interventions including land restoration initiatives, sustainable cropland management, improved fertilizer accessibility and efficiency, and integrated land-use planning to strengthen Nigeria’s long-term food system resilience.</p>

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Land degradation, fertilizer use, and grazing pressure as determinants of food security in Nigeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月4日

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  • Babatunde Sunday Eweade,
  • Mehdi Seraj,
  • Huseyin Ozdeser

摘要

Nigeria continues to experience persistent food insecurity despite its significant agricultural potential. This study examines how environmental and demographic pressures influence food security, measured using the Food Production Index (FPI) as a proxy for national food availability. Specifically, the study investigates the effects of land degradation, fertilizer consumption, grazing land pressure, permanent cropland, and population density on food security in Nigeria. Using quarterly data from 1990 to 2023, the study applies the Modified Kernel Regularized Quantile Regression (MKRQR) approach to capture nonlinear and heterogeneous effects across different levels of food security. The results reveal that land degradation and grazing pressure consistently exert significant negative effects across most quantiles of the food production distribution, indicating that environmental stress undermines food system performance. In contrast, permanent cropland expansion, fertilizer consumption, and population density generally enhance food security, although the magnitude of these effects varies across quantiles. These findings highlight that the determinants of food security operate differently across the distribution of food production. The study recommends targeted policy interventions including land restoration initiatives, sustainable cropland management, improved fertilizer accessibility and efficiency, and integrated land-use planning to strengthen Nigeria’s long-term food system resilience.