<p>This study explores the complex relationship between terrorism, agricultural development, and food security in the Sahel region, an area increasingly affected by violent conflict and environmental stress. Despite growing policy attention, empirical evidence on how terrorism influences agricultural outcomes and land use dynamics remains limited. Addressing this gap, the study aims to assess the impact of terrorism-related variables on agricultural GDP, food security, and cropland expansion while controlling for key macroeconomic and institutional factors. The analysis uncovers several critical findings using panel data from Sahelian countries and applying instrumental variable regression techniques to address endogeneity concerns. Terrorist acts, particularly those resulting in deaths and injuries, have significant negative effects on both food security and cropland area, suggesting that violence undermines agricultural activity and contributes to food system fragility. Conversely, military expenditure is positively associated with agricultural performance and land use, implying that improved security conditions may support rural livelihoods. Economic indicators such as GDP per capita and total factor productivity exhibit inconsistent effects, highlighting structural challenges in translating growth into broad-based agricultural development. These findings have important policy implications: enhancing food security and agricultural resilience in conflict-affected Sahelian countries requires not only economic investment but also targeted efforts to improve security, strengthen institutions, and address socio-economic inequalities that exacerbate vulnerability.</p>

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Terrorism and agriculture in the context of food security: an empirical analysis of the impact of terrorist activities on agricultural production in the Sahel Region

  • Tidiani Diallo,
  • Oluwaseun A. Oyebamiji,
  • Hasan Yilmaz

摘要

This study explores the complex relationship between terrorism, agricultural development, and food security in the Sahel region, an area increasingly affected by violent conflict and environmental stress. Despite growing policy attention, empirical evidence on how terrorism influences agricultural outcomes and land use dynamics remains limited. Addressing this gap, the study aims to assess the impact of terrorism-related variables on agricultural GDP, food security, and cropland expansion while controlling for key macroeconomic and institutional factors. The analysis uncovers several critical findings using panel data from Sahelian countries and applying instrumental variable regression techniques to address endogeneity concerns. Terrorist acts, particularly those resulting in deaths and injuries, have significant negative effects on both food security and cropland area, suggesting that violence undermines agricultural activity and contributes to food system fragility. Conversely, military expenditure is positively associated with agricultural performance and land use, implying that improved security conditions may support rural livelihoods. Economic indicators such as GDP per capita and total factor productivity exhibit inconsistent effects, highlighting structural challenges in translating growth into broad-based agricultural development. These findings have important policy implications: enhancing food security and agricultural resilience in conflict-affected Sahelian countries requires not only economic investment but also targeted efforts to improve security, strengthen institutions, and address socio-economic inequalities that exacerbate vulnerability.