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<p>Can relaxing fertility restrictions reshape fertility ideals? We examine this question in the context of China’s Three-Child Policy, announced in May 2021. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023 waves of the Chinese General Social Survey, we estimate intensity-based difference-in-differences and event-study models. Treatment intensity is measured by the pre-policy regional share of respondents aged 20–49 who already had exactly two children. We find little evidence of a broad increase in average ideal family size after the policy. However, regions with higher pre-policy two-child intensity showed larger post-policy increases in the probability that respondents reported an ideal family size of three or more children. Across specifications, a 10-percentage-point increase in pre-policy intensity is associated with an additional 0.82–1.37% points in this probability in the post-policy period, with statistical significance emerging in the 2023 event-study estimate. These findings suggest a selective activation of latent multi-child fertility ideals rather than a general upward shift in fertility ideals among the childbearing-age population.</p>

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China’s three-child policy and multi-child fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月31日

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  • Kaiwen Wang,
  • Yanju Meng

摘要

Can relaxing fertility restrictions reshape fertility ideals? We examine this question in the context of China’s Three-Child Policy, announced in May 2021. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023 waves of the Chinese General Social Survey, we estimate intensity-based difference-in-differences and event-study models. Treatment intensity is measured by the pre-policy regional share of respondents aged 20–49 who already had exactly two children. We find little evidence of a broad increase in average ideal family size after the policy. However, regions with higher pre-policy two-child intensity showed larger post-policy increases in the probability that respondents reported an ideal family size of three or more children. Across specifications, a 10-percentage-point increase in pre-policy intensity is associated with an additional 0.82–1.37% points in this probability in the post-policy period, with statistical significance emerging in the 2023 event-study estimate. These findings suggest a selective activation of latent multi-child fertility ideals rather than a general upward shift in fertility ideals among the childbearing-age population.