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<p>Climate variability has emerged as a critical structural driver of livelihood disruption and labour mobility in vulnerable agrarian regions of India. This study examines how different forms of climate variability shape household migration decisions in two ecologically distinct districts of Odisha—Kendrapara (cyclone-prone coastal) and Nuapada (drought-prone western)—and investigates whether livelihood insecurity mediates this relationship while social protection moderate’s climate-induced mobility.Using primary household survey data from 600 households (300 per district) across 32 villages, combined with secondary climate data (2018–2023), the analysis employs binary and multinomial logistic regression, structural equation modeling for pathway analysis, and propensity score matching as a robustness check.Climate variability is associated with significantly higher migration likelihood. The findings are consistent with livelihood insecurity acting as a pathway between climate variability and migration, with income instability, crop loss, and indebtedness emerging as key links. Migration patterns differ by shock typology: drought is associated with seasonal/circular migration while cyclones are associated with temporary/post-disaster migration. Social protection is associated with reduced migration odds. Subgroup analyses indicate that marginal farmers, SC/ST households, and low-education groups show larger associations. Non-linear relationships suggest threshold effects where migration accelerates sharply under high climate stress.The findings imply that climate-induced migration is not inevitable under supportive policy conditions. Model-based simulations suggest that integrated interventions combining social protection expansion with livelihood diversification could potentially reduce migration below baseline levels. Well-targeted, spatially coordinated policies may help households adapt in place rather than migrate in distress.</p>

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Climate variability, livelihood insecurity, and migration: a micro-level analysis of coastal and drought-prone Odisha, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月18日

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  • Mayadhar Sethy,
  • Sandhya R Mahapatro,
  • Dipti Mayee Sahoo

摘要

Climate variability has emerged as a critical structural driver of livelihood disruption and labour mobility in vulnerable agrarian regions of India. This study examines how different forms of climate variability shape household migration decisions in two ecologically distinct districts of Odisha—Kendrapara (cyclone-prone coastal) and Nuapada (drought-prone western)—and investigates whether livelihood insecurity mediates this relationship while social protection moderate’s climate-induced mobility.Using primary household survey data from 600 households (300 per district) across 32 villages, combined with secondary climate data (2018–2023), the analysis employs binary and multinomial logistic regression, structural equation modeling for pathway analysis, and propensity score matching as a robustness check.Climate variability is associated with significantly higher migration likelihood. The findings are consistent with livelihood insecurity acting as a pathway between climate variability and migration, with income instability, crop loss, and indebtedness emerging as key links. Migration patterns differ by shock typology: drought is associated with seasonal/circular migration while cyclones are associated with temporary/post-disaster migration. Social protection is associated with reduced migration odds. Subgroup analyses indicate that marginal farmers, SC/ST households, and low-education groups show larger associations. Non-linear relationships suggest threshold effects where migration accelerates sharply under high climate stress.The findings imply that climate-induced migration is not inevitable under supportive policy conditions. Model-based simulations suggest that integrated interventions combining social protection expansion with livelihood diversification could potentially reduce migration below baseline levels. Well-targeted, spatially coordinated policies may help households adapt in place rather than migrate in distress.