<p>The decline in fertility to ultra-low levels is one of the most significant demographic changes in Latin America over the past decade. We explore fertility patterns by considering maternal education in five Latin American countries that have witnessed sharp declines in their total fertility rate in recent years: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay. To this end, we calculate age-specific and total fertility rates by education level for circa 2010–2022, combining multiple data sources (vital statistics, female population projections, and official household surveys). Our findings show that women with less education have experienced the most significant decline in fertility rates, although a reduction in fertility is observed across all education levels in nearly all countries. The fertility gap by education has narrowed, mainly due to the behavior of less educated women. However, significant disparities in fertility timing and intensity persist between highly educated women and those in the lower and middle education level groups. Highly educated women consistently exhibit postponement of fertility in all the countries examined, with fertility levels nearing one child per woman. The decline in adolescent and young adult fertility, particularly among women with lower educational attainment, has played a pivotal role in this reduction and in altering the timing of fertility. A decomposition exercise is also carried out: the results indicate that disparities in fertility levels between educational groups are the key driving force behind the observed shifts.</p>

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The recent decline to very low fertility levels by education in five Latin American countries (2010–2022)

  • Wanda Cabella,
  • Cecilia Velázquez

摘要

The decline in fertility to ultra-low levels is one of the most significant demographic changes in Latin America over the past decade. We explore fertility patterns by considering maternal education in five Latin American countries that have witnessed sharp declines in their total fertility rate in recent years: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay. To this end, we calculate age-specific and total fertility rates by education level for circa 2010–2022, combining multiple data sources (vital statistics, female population projections, and official household surveys). Our findings show that women with less education have experienced the most significant decline in fertility rates, although a reduction in fertility is observed across all education levels in nearly all countries. The fertility gap by education has narrowed, mainly due to the behavior of less educated women. However, significant disparities in fertility timing and intensity persist between highly educated women and those in the lower and middle education level groups. Highly educated women consistently exhibit postponement of fertility in all the countries examined, with fertility levels nearing one child per woman. The decline in adolescent and young adult fertility, particularly among women with lower educational attainment, has played a pivotal role in this reduction and in altering the timing of fertility. A decomposition exercise is also carried out: the results indicate that disparities in fertility levels between educational groups are the key driving force behind the observed shifts.