What drives period fertility rates during post-recession spells?

We explore whether expectations, quantified by GDP changes, explain period fertility patterns observed in post-recession spells. Negative expectations emerge with economic recessions and prevail quickly. They fade away slowly as the economy rebounds. That slow reduction in negative expectations may warrant the continuation of the fertility decline during the recovery years. Differences in fertility between countries may be attributed to the severity of the recession (negative expectations) and the subsequent rates of economic growth (positive expectations). Through a cross-country analysis in 35 OECD countries and a regional analysis across 25 European countries, we found that the higher the increase in GDP per capita between 2010 and 2019, the less the decline in period fertility rates.