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<p>The current study focuses on developing a robust hydrological modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the historical flow dynamics of the Brahmaputra River along the south bank of Majuli Island. Recognized as the world’s largest inhabited river island in northeastern India, Majuli faces severe erosion along its south bank driven by the dynamic behavior of the Brahmaputra River. To accurately represent the hydrological system, a hybrid calibration methodology was adopted, integrating the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithms within the SWAT-CUP calibration framework. This approach effectively accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the region, enabling a comprehensive reconstruction of historical hydrological conditions in the Brahmaputra River system adjacent to Majuli. Calibration was conducted at three upstream locations, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) results of 0.60, 0.57, and 0.54 for Passighat, Chenimari, and Sivsagar, respectively, using only SUFI-2. These values improved to 0.72, 0.70, and 0.67 with additional PSO calibration. For validation at the Bessamara site in Majuli, the NSE outcome was 0.63 with SUFI-2 alone, increasing to 0.69 with PSO calibration. The Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) Model was used to back-project historical land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, enabling the incorporation of LULC dynamics into the simulation of historical discharge. The results revealed a consistent decrease in monthly discharge across the entire period, with more pronounced reductions during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Despite this trend, discharge levels remained highest during the monsoon months. This research provides a novel analysis of historical flow patterns in the Brahmaputra River near Majuli, supporting advanced modeling to safeguard ecosystems, minimize sedimentation, and develop sustainable strategies for mitigating flooding, controlling erosion, and protecting the environment in this vulnerable region.</p>

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A Systematic Hybrid Parameterization of SWAT Using SUFI-2 and PSO Algorithms for Historical Flow Simulation of the Brahmaputra River at Majuli: The World’s Largest Inhabited River Island

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月15日

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  • Biman Kalita,
  • Swapnali Barman,
  • Waikhom Rahul Singh,
  • Rajib Kumar Bhattacharjya

摘要

The current study focuses on developing a robust hydrological modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate the historical flow dynamics of the Brahmaputra River along the south bank of Majuli Island. Recognized as the world’s largest inhabited river island in northeastern India, Majuli faces severe erosion along its south bank driven by the dynamic behavior of the Brahmaputra River. To accurately represent the hydrological system, a hybrid calibration methodology was adopted, integrating the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithms within the SWAT-CUP calibration framework. This approach effectively accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the region, enabling a comprehensive reconstruction of historical hydrological conditions in the Brahmaputra River system adjacent to Majuli. Calibration was conducted at three upstream locations, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) results of 0.60, 0.57, and 0.54 for Passighat, Chenimari, and Sivsagar, respectively, using only SUFI-2. These values improved to 0.72, 0.70, and 0.67 with additional PSO calibration. For validation at the Bessamara site in Majuli, the NSE outcome was 0.63 with SUFI-2 alone, increasing to 0.69 with PSO calibration. The Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) Model was used to back-project historical land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, enabling the incorporation of LULC dynamics into the simulation of historical discharge. The results revealed a consistent decrease in monthly discharge across the entire period, with more pronounced reductions during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Despite this trend, discharge levels remained highest during the monsoon months. This research provides a novel analysis of historical flow patterns in the Brahmaputra River near Majuli, supporting advanced modeling to safeguard ecosystems, minimize sedimentation, and develop sustainable strategies for mitigating flooding, controlling erosion, and protecting the environment in this vulnerable region.