Assessing and Forecasting the Changing Trend of Area in Majuli Island Using Geo-spatial Technology and the ARIMA Model
摘要
The present study tries to understand the changing pattern of Majuli Island from 1973 to 2023 with the aid of satellite images, geo-processing techniques, and the ARIMA model. The study highlights that the total area of the island during 1973 was 509.15 km2 which reduced to about 427.73 km2, resulting in a degradation of 16% of the island’s total area over the last five decades. The period 1978–1983 recorded the highest amount of degradation of about 75.78 km2 contrary, the period 2013–2018 showcased the minimum amount of degradation i.e., 4.20 km2. The study is also the foremost endeavor to forecast the interaction of the island and the robust Brahmaputra with the avail of the ARIMA model consequently, elucidating to understand the islands morphodynamism in the past and future. The ARIMA values highlight that the lower part of the island experienced a highly declining trend of land degradation from 1973 to 1993, whereas the other two parts experienced a fluctuating trend of land area change. The observed value of the island as a whole highlighted a declining trend till 1993 which later followed a fluctuating trend from 1993 hitherto. For the years 2028 and 2033, the forecasted values showcased an oscillating trend.