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<p>This study provides a comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought dynamics in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) region of Türkiye, a major agricultural production zone characterized by semi-arid conditions. Utilizing multi-dimensional drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST), this research examines the spatiotemporal variations in drought severity during drought years (2007–2008, 2021–2022) and non-drought years (2014–2015, 2018–2019). The results reveal significant regional and temporal variability, with severe drought conditions predominantly affecting rain-fed agricultural areas in Şanlıurfa, Mardin, and Şırnak during drought years, whereas non-drought years exhibited substantial recovery, albeit with localized persistence of mild to moderate drought conditions. The comparative analysis of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural areas demonstrates that irrigation mitigates drought impacts, as severe drought was observed in 14.03% of irrigated areas compared to 27.85% of rain-fed areas. However, the findings also underscore that irrigation alone does not eliminate drought vulnerability. Furthermore, correlation analysis between SPEI-3 and crop yield anomalies for major crops, including wheat, barley, and red lentil, reveals strong positive associations, particularly for barley, which exhibits significant sensitivity to short-term drought conditions across all provinces. This study highlights the importance of integrating multiple drought indices to develop a holistic understanding of agricultural drought dynamics and their impacts on different cropping systems. The findings provide actionable insights for region-specific drought mitigation strategies, enhanced water resource management, and improved agricultural resilience in the GAP region, which faces increasing climatic variability and water scarcity.</p>

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Agricultural Drought Survey Based Upon Multiple Indices in Southeast Anatolia Project Region, Upper Mesopotamia, Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月15日

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  • Sultan Duran,
  • Mesut Doğan

摘要

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of agricultural drought dynamics in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) region of Türkiye, a major agricultural production zone characterized by semi-arid conditions. Utilizing multi-dimensional drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST), this research examines the spatiotemporal variations in drought severity during drought years (2007–2008, 2021–2022) and non-drought years (2014–2015, 2018–2019). The results reveal significant regional and temporal variability, with severe drought conditions predominantly affecting rain-fed agricultural areas in Şanlıurfa, Mardin, and Şırnak during drought years, whereas non-drought years exhibited substantial recovery, albeit with localized persistence of mild to moderate drought conditions. The comparative analysis of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural areas demonstrates that irrigation mitigates drought impacts, as severe drought was observed in 14.03% of irrigated areas compared to 27.85% of rain-fed areas. However, the findings also underscore that irrigation alone does not eliminate drought vulnerability. Furthermore, correlation analysis between SPEI-3 and crop yield anomalies for major crops, including wheat, barley, and red lentil, reveals strong positive associations, particularly for barley, which exhibits significant sensitivity to short-term drought conditions across all provinces. This study highlights the importance of integrating multiple drought indices to develop a holistic understanding of agricultural drought dynamics and their impacts on different cropping systems. The findings provide actionable insights for region-specific drought mitigation strategies, enhanced water resource management, and improved agricultural resilience in the GAP region, which faces increasing climatic variability and water scarcity.