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<p>Climate change poses significant challenges to global systems, including food production, water supply, health, and livelihoods. Understanding its impacts on river basins is essential, requiring hydrological models and climate scenarios. A study on the Kuhalur distributary of the Lower Bhavani Basin in Tamil Nadu, India, employed the SWAT model and GIS tools to assess these impacts. Geospatial data on land use, soil, DEM, and slope were processed using ArcGIS 10.1. The basin was divided into 47 micro watersheds, further subdivided into Hydrological Response Units based on unique combinations of land use, soil, and slope characteristics. Results revealed crop water demand exceeded supply by 29%, supplemented by groundwater extraction estimated at 627&#xa0;ha&#xa0;m. Hydrological parameters were simulated for the current scenario (2001–2020), mid-century (2041–2060), and end-century (2071–2090). Mid-century projections indicate a 15.7% increase in average annual rainfall (983.2&#xa0;mm), resulting in a 16.7% rise in water yield. By end-century, rainfall is expected to decline by 9.6% (766.9&#xa0;mm), reducing water yield by 10.12%. Runoff is predicted to remain at 30% of rainfall for both future scenarios. Soil–water storage is expected to rise by 11% mid-century but decrease by 12.8% by end-century compared to current conditions. Evapotranspiration is anticipated to increase across all seasons, with rises of 6.4% mid-century and 11.6% end-century, indicating higher future crop water requirements. The study underscores the importance of adaptive water management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture, ensuring sustainable resource use in the Lower Bhavani Basin under changing climatic conditions.</p>

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Hydrological Simulation Model on Climate Change Impact of a Lower Bhavani Basin Using GIS and SWAT

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月20日

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  • Nagarajan Madasamy,
  • Valliammai Meiyappan,
  • Manikandan Muthiah,
  • Sujitha Elango

摘要

Climate change poses significant challenges to global systems, including food production, water supply, health, and livelihoods. Understanding its impacts on river basins is essential, requiring hydrological models and climate scenarios. A study on the Kuhalur distributary of the Lower Bhavani Basin in Tamil Nadu, India, employed the SWAT model and GIS tools to assess these impacts. Geospatial data on land use, soil, DEM, and slope were processed using ArcGIS 10.1. The basin was divided into 47 micro watersheds, further subdivided into Hydrological Response Units based on unique combinations of land use, soil, and slope characteristics. Results revealed crop water demand exceeded supply by 29%, supplemented by groundwater extraction estimated at 627 ha m. Hydrological parameters were simulated for the current scenario (2001–2020), mid-century (2041–2060), and end-century (2071–2090). Mid-century projections indicate a 15.7% increase in average annual rainfall (983.2 mm), resulting in a 16.7% rise in water yield. By end-century, rainfall is expected to decline by 9.6% (766.9 mm), reducing water yield by 10.12%. Runoff is predicted to remain at 30% of rainfall for both future scenarios. Soil–water storage is expected to rise by 11% mid-century but decrease by 12.8% by end-century compared to current conditions. Evapotranspiration is anticipated to increase across all seasons, with rises of 6.4% mid-century and 11.6% end-century, indicating higher future crop water requirements. The study underscores the importance of adaptive water management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture, ensuring sustainable resource use in the Lower Bhavani Basin under changing climatic conditions.