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<p>We model 170 radiocarbon dates from 16 Late Archaic and Formative sites to build a multi-scalar chronology for the Kotosh Religious Tradition (KRT). Within the KRT we differentiate the highly codified Mito Tradition (MT) from the more variable Kotosh Broad Tradition (KBT), estimating start–end boundaries for each using OxCal with IntCal20/SHCal20 calibration (Mixed curve for highland contexts) and explicit outlier models. The synthesis resolves three episodes of activity. Phase 1, ~ <i>3400</i> BCE (<i>4004–2991</i> BCE, <i>95.4%)</i> to ~ <i>3000</i> BCE (<i>3280–2680</i> BCE, <i>95.4%)</i>, marks the onset of the KRT, confined to Huaricanga and expressed in a coastal KBT form—the earliest materialization of the fire-offering canon later standardized inland. Phase 2, ~ <i>2700</i> BCE (<i>2800–2565</i> BCE, 95.4%) to ~ <i>1200</i> BCE (<i>1260–</i><i>1097</i> BCE, 95.4%), represents the principal expansion and overlap of KBT and MT, when coastal and highland communities co-produced a shared ritual grammar. Phase 3, ~ <i>800</i> BCE (<i>1001–544</i> BCE, 95.4%) to ~ <i>550</i> BCE (<i>750–200</i> BCE, 95.4%), captures a terminal revival of fire-centric architecture at a limited number of sites, expressed mainly in the MT. Modeled intervals between phases have median durations of ~ <i>295&#xa0;year</i> (<i>0–590&#xa0;year</i>, 95.4%) and ~ <i>407&#xa0;year</i> (<i>170–620&#xa0;year</i>, 95.4%), indicating episodic—not continuous—adoption and elaboration of fire-centric architecture. Anchoring Bayesian boundaries to architectural canonicity provides a transparent, replicable framework for reconstructing the tempo and trajectory of early Andean ritual practice. </p>

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Time, ritual, and bayesian reasoning: charting the Andean Kotosh religious tradition

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月2日

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  • Christian Mesía-Montenegro

摘要

We model 170 radiocarbon dates from 16 Late Archaic and Formative sites to build a multi-scalar chronology for the Kotosh Religious Tradition (KRT). Within the KRT we differentiate the highly codified Mito Tradition (MT) from the more variable Kotosh Broad Tradition (KBT), estimating start–end boundaries for each using OxCal with IntCal20/SHCal20 calibration (Mixed curve for highland contexts) and explicit outlier models. The synthesis resolves three episodes of activity. Phase 1, ~ 3400 BCE (4004–2991 BCE, 95.4%) to ~ 3000 BCE (3280–2680 BCE, 95.4%), marks the onset of the KRT, confined to Huaricanga and expressed in a coastal KBT form—the earliest materialization of the fire-offering canon later standardized inland. Phase 2, ~ 2700 BCE (2800–2565 BCE, 95.4%) to ~ 1200 BCE (1260–1097 BCE, 95.4%), represents the principal expansion and overlap of KBT and MT, when coastal and highland communities co-produced a shared ritual grammar. Phase 3, ~ 800 BCE (1001–544 BCE, 95.4%) to ~ 550 BCE (750–200 BCE, 95.4%), captures a terminal revival of fire-centric architecture at a limited number of sites, expressed mainly in the MT. Modeled intervals between phases have median durations of ~ 295 year (0–590 year, 95.4%) and ~ 407 year (170–620 year, 95.4%), indicating episodic—not continuous—adoption and elaboration of fire-centric architecture. Anchoring Bayesian boundaries to architectural canonicity provides a transparent, replicable framework for reconstructing the tempo and trajectory of early Andean ritual practice.