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<p>Classical urban economic theories, which prioritize centrality for hotel location, are often directly applied in the Global South despite fundamental differences in urban dynamics. The practice creates a crucial research gap, as the suitability drivers in rapidly urbanizing secondary cities remain poorly understood, leading to suboptimal investment and unsustainable sprawl. The study moves beyond traditional frameworks to develop and validate a geospatial model that captures context-specific factors influencing hotel development in a typical secondary city. We hypothesize that land availability supersedes central proximity as the primary determinant. The study integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for Minna Metropolis, Nigeria. Five criteria, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), proximity to major roads, distance from existing hotels (market proximity), slope, and elevation, were standardized and weighted based on input from a panel of urban planning and hospitality experts. A weighted overlay analysis determined the results. In ArcGIS 10.8, generate a site suitability map that validates against existing hotel locations. The model identified 54.24&#xa0;km² (38.2% of the study area) as Highly Suitable, with a significant concentration in the northern sectors. The AHP analysis revealed that Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) was the dominant factor, accounting for 46.2% of the weight, significantly surpassing market proximity, which contributed 25.8%. The evidence suggests that the availability of developable land drives growth more strongly than a central location. The model’s robustness was confirmed, with 86.7% of existing hotels located in predicted suitable zones. The challenges posed by land availability limit the direct application of centrality-based models in Bid-Rent Theory and in contexts of rapid urbanization. The study provides a replicable, data-driven decision-support tool for planners and investors. Its theoretical contribution is the dynamic nature of location factor hierarchies, advocating for a strategic shift towards polycentric urban development in secondary cities of the Global South.</p>

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Context-aware suitability modelling for hotel development: a GIS-AHP framework challenging centrality paradigms in a rapidly urbanizing secondary city

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月3日

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  • Ekundayo A. Adesina,
  • S. Chukwu

摘要

Classical urban economic theories, which prioritize centrality for hotel location, are often directly applied in the Global South despite fundamental differences in urban dynamics. The practice creates a crucial research gap, as the suitability drivers in rapidly urbanizing secondary cities remain poorly understood, leading to suboptimal investment and unsustainable sprawl. The study moves beyond traditional frameworks to develop and validate a geospatial model that captures context-specific factors influencing hotel development in a typical secondary city. We hypothesize that land availability supersedes central proximity as the primary determinant. The study integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for Minna Metropolis, Nigeria. Five criteria, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), proximity to major roads, distance from existing hotels (market proximity), slope, and elevation, were standardized and weighted based on input from a panel of urban planning and hospitality experts. A weighted overlay analysis determined the results. In ArcGIS 10.8, generate a site suitability map that validates against existing hotel locations. The model identified 54.24 km² (38.2% of the study area) as Highly Suitable, with a significant concentration in the northern sectors. The AHP analysis revealed that Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) was the dominant factor, accounting for 46.2% of the weight, significantly surpassing market proximity, which contributed 25.8%. The evidence suggests that the availability of developable land drives growth more strongly than a central location. The model’s robustness was confirmed, with 86.7% of existing hotels located in predicted suitable zones. The challenges posed by land availability limit the direct application of centrality-based models in Bid-Rent Theory and in contexts of rapid urbanization. The study provides a replicable, data-driven decision-support tool for planners and investors. Its theoretical contribution is the dynamic nature of location factor hierarchies, advocating for a strategic shift towards polycentric urban development in secondary cities of the Global South.