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<p>In this study, the anomaly indices of the winter sea surface temperature and climatic variables and the unified winter monsoon index to predict summer rainfall as accurately as possible are found, and the predictability of summer rainfall over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (SR-DPRK) is quantitatively evaluated. The linear trend of SR-DPRK and abrupt shift are investigated. The summer monsoon index in the study region is newly defined and the validity of its definition is explained. Through the one-point lagged correlation analyses, the 14 anomaly indices and winter monsoon intensity index for the prediction of SR-DPRK are obtained, and the possible physical mechanism favorable for the enhancement of SR-DPRK is revealed. Seasonal prediction experiments for the SR-DPRK are conducted using the index which represents comprehensively the monsoon intensity in the preceding winter and two sets of predictors obtained through the lagged correlation analysis and their results are analyzed.</p>

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Predictability of summer rainfall over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea using the monsoon intensity in the preceding winter

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月15日

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  • Sang-Il Jong,
  • Hyon-U. Kim,
  • Un-Sim Paek,
  • Ryu-Gyong Pak,
  • Sim-Hae Ri

摘要

In this study, the anomaly indices of the winter sea surface temperature and climatic variables and the unified winter monsoon index to predict summer rainfall as accurately as possible are found, and the predictability of summer rainfall over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (SR-DPRK) is quantitatively evaluated. The linear trend of SR-DPRK and abrupt shift are investigated. The summer monsoon index in the study region is newly defined and the validity of its definition is explained. Through the one-point lagged correlation analyses, the 14 anomaly indices and winter monsoon intensity index for the prediction of SR-DPRK are obtained, and the possible physical mechanism favorable for the enhancement of SR-DPRK is revealed. Seasonal prediction experiments for the SR-DPRK are conducted using the index which represents comprehensively the monsoon intensity in the preceding winter and two sets of predictors obtained through the lagged correlation analysis and their results are analyzed.